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The conflict in Ukraine is gaining momentum. On the front lines in the Donbas, the People’s Militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, with the support of the Russian Army, are achieving tactical successes, but face fierce resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In the Kharkiv region, to the north of the city of Kharkiv, fighting for control over the village of Russkaya Lozovaya continues. Ukrainian sources claimed their control of the AFU over the village. In their turn, Russian media reported the Russian control over the settlement a day before. The official confirmations by any side are yet to be provided. In fact, fierce clashes continue in the area.
Russian forces do not carry out any assault operations in the region. Positional battles also continue in the Zolochevskiy region to the north-east of the city of Kharkiv, near Stary Saltov on the Severskiy Donets River, as well as near the town of Chuguev located to the south-east of Kharkiv.
The AFU are attempting to counter-attack and repel Russian forces from the fortified areas in the Tsirkuni and Cherkasski Tishki. The Ukrainian military command is trying to gain a foothold in the area, but the AFU are suffering major losses.
On the other hand, the concentration of Ukrainian forces in the north-east of Kharkiv, in the area of Tsirkuni, reduced the AFU capabilities to the north of the city in the area of Kozachia Lopan. According to unconfirmed reports, the Russian Armed Forces managed to recapture the villages of Turovo and Makarovo to the south of the town located near the Russian border.
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed artillery near Tsupovka in the Kharkiv Region to shell civilians evacuating via a humanitarian corridor from Kharkiv to the west.
So far, the situation in the Kharkiv region remains stable. No strategic advances by any of the warring sides have been confirmed. The Russian grouping in the region is not aimed at taking control of the city of Kharkiv, but at the distraction of Ukrainian forces from the Izyum area, where the Russian offence continues.
Transfer of corpses of Ukrainian soldiers from the front lines by Russian servicemen
Transfer of corpses of Ukrainian soldiers from the front lines by Russian servicemen
On the Izyum front lines, the Russian Army is advancing slowly but steadily. To the west of Izyum there are battles for Bolshaya Kamyshevaha. To the south, fighting continues in Kurulka and Pashkovo. Fighting continues in the area north of the Barvenkovo-Slaviansk highway.
The village of Dovghenkoe reportedly came under the Russian control.
One of the hotspots in the region is the area near the Oskol reservoir, where about a thousand AFU soldiers fell into operational encirclement and are deprived of supplies.
Fighting also continues in the area of Yampol and Krasny Liman. Having completed the mop up operations in Yampol, Russian and LPR troops have reached the outskirts of Liman from the southeast. Fire control over the Liman-Raygorodok road has been established.
After the mop up operation in Krasny Liman is completed, Russian forces will likely move towards the village of Nikolaevka. The village is of strategic importance as it is located on a hill on the eastern outskirts of Slavyansk.
The Russian troops are aimed to create an operational encirclement of the towns of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk the main hotspot of the war in the Donbass region since 2014.
Meanwhile, in the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk region, Russian and LPR troops continue their advance in the town of Rubizhne. After the residential areas were secured, the LPR People’s Militia has recently taken control of the industrial zone in the town, where the fortified area was used as the main stronghold of Ukrainian forces.
Security operations in the town continue. The LPR servicemen are now clearing the city of mines and checking the basements of buildings for remains of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Despite clashes on the outskirts, civilians in the town feel save and leave their basements.
The Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk region is one of the most difficult front lines in Eastern Ukraine. At the same time, these territories are of strategic importance. The AFU grouping in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk is close to suffer lack of supplies, as the Russian Air Force are constantly hitting weapons and fuel depots in this area.
In the Donetsk People’s Republic, the front lines remain almost unchanged.
Positional battles are taking place in Horlivka. Several Ukrainian UAVs have been recently destroyed in the area.
Popasna
The mop up operation of the LPR continues in the town of Popasna. A large warehouse with AFU weapons was recently blown up in the town. The footage from the area shows Russian Ka-52 Alligator reconnaissance attack helicopters pounding AFU positions near Popasna. The town was badly affected by month-long military operations.
In the city of Mariupol, evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal facilities continues. On April 30 and May 1, 80 civilians could leave the plant.
According to various military analyses, at the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the joint Russian, LPR and DPR forces were aimed at double encirclement of the AFU grouping in Donbass. The first line of encirclement should cut off the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk region by Russian troops advancing from the Liman and Popasna directions.
The second line should cut off the whole AFU grouping deployed in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region by Russian forces advancing from Izyum in the North and from Donetsk or even Velika Novoselka in the south.
The quantity of Russian troops deployed in Eastern Ukraine seems to be insufficient for such a military operation.
Taking into account the recent military developments, including the ongoing advance of LPR troops towards Liman, in the direction of Slavyansk and the increase of military activities of the DPR troops near Horlivka, the strategy of the Russian military command has changed.
Russian forces will likely attempt to encircle the towns of Slavyansk/Kramatorsk by Russian/LPR troops from Izyum and Liman as well as the towns of Bakhmut/Soledar by Russian/DPR/LPR troops from Horlivka and Popasna. The control over these areas would cut off the main roads of supply of the AFU grouping in Severodonetsk/Lisichansk.
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On the southern Vasilievka-Orekhov-Gulyaypole front lines, there are no particular changes. Fighting continues on the approaches to Gulyaypole and the settlements to the east. The AFU are preparing for further Russian advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
In the Kherson region, at the moment there is a Russian offensive along the Kherson-Mykolaiv border line.
The AFU military command is preparing for the Russian advance on Kriviy Rih from the Kherson region. Particularly, dense strikes are being carried out in Velyka Oleksandrivka in the northern part of the Kherson region. The strike may signal of an upcoming Russian assault on the village. Coming closer to the city of Kryvyi Rih, Russian forces will threaten the AFU military supplies in the region.
However, at the moment, the Russian grouping in the southern regions of Ukraine seems to be insufficient for any major offensive operations.
HMMWVs, APC-70s, and AFU vehicles destroyed and seized can be seen in the Kherson region.
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In the south of the Kherson region, the main hotspots remain on the border of the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. Ukrainian attempts to counterattack in the Kherson region ended unsuccessfully. In their turn, Russian forces are yet to claim control over the village of Oleksandrivka located on the coast of the Dnieper estuary. LINK
In the case of the increase of hostilities in the region, Russian forces could deploy their military equipment on a kind of a peninsula to the south of the Dnieper estuary in the villages of Vasilivka for example. In this case, the Russian artillery could support the Russian advance along the coast and shell AFU positions in Oleksandrivka and the town of Ochakiv.
In Odessa, the AFU are preparing for hostilities in the case of a Russian breakthrough near Mykolaiv.
On the foreign policy contour of the military operation, active assistance from NATO countries to Ukrainian Armed Forces continues. Judging by the fact that the embassies of seven countries (six NATO countries and Israel) have now called on their citizens to leave Transnistria and Moldova, one can assume that the countdown for the start of cooperation between Kyiv and Chisinau has started.
Germany continues its planned deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine. The video shows the Pzh-2000 SAU and the American MLRS m270 MLRS.
Poland has already transferred about 200 T-72 tanks, dozens of howitzers, drones, rockets, and grenade launchers to Ukraine. Warsaw lost half of its tank arsenal in favor of Kyiv, as the country reportedly had about 400 such vehicles. Warsaw has already transferred arms worth $7 billion to Ukraine, including self-propelled howitzers, grenade launchers, air-to-air missiles, drones, and ammunition.
Ukraine is likely to receive more equipment through the U.S. lend-lease, which the U.S. has recently voted for: 4th generation F-16 C/D multifunction light fighters, HIMARS wheeled multiple rocket launchers, M109A6 Paladin self-propelled artillery systems, M270 MLRS multi-purpose MLRS launcher, M2A3 Bradley US infantry fighting vehicles, NASAMS 2 mobile Norwegian SAM system, M1A2 Abrams third-generation tanks, Patriot SAMs. Following the “lend-lease law” for the AFU adopted in the USA, supplies will start very soon. Moreover, to do it as quickly as possible, weapons and military equipment will be transported to Ukraine from among those that are in Poland and Romania. Thus, the Ukrainians may receive the first samples of armament already in a week or even earlier.
Footage of the shipment of American M113 armored personnel carriers:
The tactics of the Russian Army and the AFU have changed. The last five weeks of the Russian military operation were marked the dramatically reduced losses of the Russian Army, both in killed/injured and prisoners of war. The reason is that the initial tactic of primarily rapid advance has been abandoned and replaced by the tactic of crushing which supposes a slow advance following artillery shelling and airstrikes. Before each subsequent Ukrainian defensive line, the ground advance stops, and artillery and aviation take over the leading role. After the defending Ukrainian forces either retreat or surrender, the advance resumes. One should not expect quick spectacular breakthroughs, but the final result will be more reliable. The emphasis is on grinding of the AFU’s manpower.
The AFU, on the other hand, uses slightly different tactics. Large groups of less trained fighters are used as a cannon fodder. First, they are sent to the front line to provoke Russian fire and detect Russian positions. Then Ukrainian fighters open return fire.
