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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
Fulfilling its promise to send new armored vehicles to the neo-Nazi regime, Washington finally supplied Kiev with Abrams tanks, with the first batch of these weapons having already arrived on Ukrainian soil. It is expected that tanks will soon begin to be used on the frontlines, but this is unlikely to represent any real change for the Ukrainian military situation.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced the arrival of the tanks on his social media. The neo-Nazi leader thanked his Western partners and stated that the vehicles were “preparing to reinforce our [Ukrainian] brigades.” In the same vein, the New York Times reported the news and emphasized that the tanks could help Kiev in its “counteroffensive” against the Russian armed forces – which has lasted more than three months, killing tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers without achieving any territorial gain.
Neither Zelensky nor the New York Times reported details about the delivery, not saying for example how many tanks had already arrived in Ukraine. Previously, Politico and other media outlets published articles stating that more than thirty vehicles were expected to be delivered to Ukraine, but it is unknown how many are already at the service of Kiev. It is important to note that Ukrainian authorities previously stated that around 300 tanks would be needed to enable victory in the counteroffensive, but only around half of that number was achieved.
This narrative that points to mathematical data for victory is absolutely unfounded. There is no exact number of weapons to be received in order to win a war. This type of strategic calculation completely contradicts the elementary principles of military sciences, which prioritize a broad view of the conflict rather than merely numerical data. The quantity of weapons is important, but it is not the only decisive factor, there are also many others to be considered.
One of these factors is the quality of the weapons themselves. Despite receiving Abrams tanks, the vehicles sent to the proxy state do not have the same quality as those used by the American armed forces. Washington deliberately chose to deliver an older version of the equipment and further reduced the tank’s operational capacity, removing, for example, “some of its most sophisticated electronics before seeing combat in Ukraine“. The objective is to prevent the Ukrainian military from gaining access to sensitive American technology.
In addition to quality, other factors to be considered are the material reality of the battlefield and the enemy’s combat capacity. On the frontlines, Ukrainians continue to suffer heavy losses, with many casualties being reported every day. Meanwhile, the Russians remain firm in their defense lines, preventing any significant territorial advance by Kiev. Russian tactics mainly consist of the priority of saving the lives of its soldiers, avoiding casualties and relying on the intense use of military technology, such as artillery, aviation, drones and minefields – in addition to advanced electronic warfare techniques to neutralize enemy attacks.
In this scenario, the arrival of the Abrams tanks tends to generate few good expectations from a realistic point of view. These vehicles will be deployed on a battlefield in which the Ukrainians are at an extreme disadvantage and will have to face the complex Russian system that combines artillery, mines and air power to eliminate the armored vehicles supplied by the West. What is most likely is that, instead of an improvement in the “counteroffensive” or a “game changer“, the Abrams tanks will end up suffering the same fate as the German Leopards, becoming an easy target for Russian forces.
In fact, there is no possibility of the Ukrainian failure being reversed through Western aid. Even if the Ukrainian armed forces eventually continue to receive heavy weapons and manage to make some military gains in the future, they will remain unable to ensure control over their territories and will end up succumbing to the massive pressure imposed by the Russians.
Moscow is still not using its real combat capacity, having mobilized only a small percentage of its troops for the special operation, which is why the country has a high capacity to replace casualties and promote major offensives. On the other hand, Ukraine is carrying out successive total mobilizations, calling on teenagers, women, the elderly, people with health problems and even expatriates to try to alleviate the catastrophic effects of the casualties generated in the failed “counteroffensive” attempt. No army is capable of winning a war without soldiers to deploy on the battlefield, even if it has unlimited military aid.
Abrams tanks will certainly be efficient in escalating and prolonging the conflict. The Russians will intensify their attacks to destroy these weapons and the intensity of hostilities will be increased. But there will be no change in the final result of the conflict.
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