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The situation on the frontlines near Avdeevka is changing very rapidly. As soon as official sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed control over the entire first line of Ukrainian defense west of the city, reports from the front announced the fall of the second, main line of Ukrainian defense in the region.
In the afternoon of February 28, both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that the advancing Russian forces had seized control of three villages on the Berdych-Orlovka-Tonenkoe line.
The reports from the front varied slightly. Some settlements have reportedly come under full Russian control, while fighting continued on the outskirts of the other villages. Any footage from the villages is yet to confirm the control by any of the warring sides, and the Russian Ministry of Defense has not yet declared control over the new settlements. However, it is already clear that the Ukrainian defense line west of Avdeevka has fallen.
The city of Avdeevka:
Reports of the liberation of the villages of Orlovka and Tonenkoe by Russian forces came almost simultaneously.
Just a couple of weeks ago, Orlovka was one of the most important supply hubs for the Ukrainian garrison in Avdeevka. After the defeat in the city, the Ukrainians claimed that they had retreated to “the newly prepared defense lines”, where Orlovka appeared to be the central stronghold of the retreating Ukrainian garrison; but it turned out that Ukrainian defense was completely unable to contain the Russian offensive.
After the victory in Lastochkino, Russian troops continued their offensive in two directions, west to Orlovka and southwest, cutting the line of communication between Orlovka and Tonenkoe and took control of an important road junction in the southern part of Orlovka.
On the eve of another defeat, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, ordered his troops to maintain control of Orlovka; but rapidly advancing from two directions, Russian forces managed to repel the Ukrainian grouping from the village in a couple of days.
According to the latest data, the village came under full Russian control on the night of February 29. The final mop up and deming operations continue on the streets.
The remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated to the west towards Umanskoye, forced to move in an open area under fire from Russian artillery. According to reports from the front, the retreating Ukrainian forces were also shelled by friendly fire from Ukrainian artillery. Probably, the Ukrainian command made a mistake, but it is possible that this is how Ukrainian officers punish the retreating units.
Russian fire on retreating units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Tonenkoe:
Soon, reports from the front confirmed Russian control of the village of Tonenkoe located on the southern flank of the Ukrainian defense line. Ukrainian military sources complained that “it was not possible to organize defense in Tonenkoe after losing control over the villages of Lastochkino and Severnoe” and Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat from the village “to more advantageous positions.”
The village of Tonenkoe was almost semi-surrounded. After the victory in Severnoe and Lastochkino, the Russians launched an offensive against Tonenke from the northern, eastern and southern directions.
On the morning of February 29, according to some reports from the front, the mop up operation continued on the western outskirts of Tonenkoe, where some Ukrainian forces remained before escaping from the village.
Russian strikes in the area of Avdeevka:
Having lost control of two villages of the defense line to the west of Avdeevka, the AFU began to withdraw from Berdychi, located on the northern flank of the Ukrainian defense
The loss of control of Berdychi by the Ukrainian military was swift. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed control of Petrovsky (formerly Stepovoye) only on February 28. According to reports from the front, by that time the Russian forces had already reached the outskirts of Berdychi.
On the night of February 29, the first reports were received that Ukrainian troops were leaving the eastern part of the village under Russian pressure. In the morning, various sources claimed Russian control over the village.
The Ukrainian line of defense was supposed to lay in villages along the small river Durnaya. The river itself does not a significant obstacle to the advancing Russian troops, but it brought problems for the Ukrainian soldiers. The settlements on the river banks are located in the lowlands comparing to the Russian positions on the outskirts of Avdeevka. As a result, the retreating Ukrainian garrison was under constant close fire control of the Russian artillery and suffered heavy losses.
Berdychi, Orlovka and Tonenkoe are mostly located on the eastern bank of the river; unlike Semenovka, which remains under Ukrainian control on the western bank. Russian forces already control territories on the western bank to the north near Berdychi and to the south in the Orlovka area. If the Ukrainian command continues to resist, Ukrainian forces in Semenovka may soon be surrounded. Most likely, the remnants of the Ukrainian army there will retreat to save the military personnel and the village will soon come under Russian control.
Artillery fire in the area:
The rapid Russian offensive showed that the defeat of the Ukrainian army was not an “organized withdrawal to more advantageous lines,” as it was declared by the Ukrainian military command, but it was a chaotic escape that had devastating consequences for the defense in the entire Donetsk direction.
Attempts by the Ukrainian military to hastily build a new line of defense along the eastern bank of the Durnaya River have failed. The remnants of the Ukrainian garrison are now forced to retreat to a new line of defense on the Netailovo-Umanskoye-Novoselovka Persha line, where their maneuverability will be significantly limited by the Karlovskoe Reservoir behind their backs, and the strongholds in these villages are located at a considerable distance from each other. There are no significant fortifications there, and the Ukrainian military is unlikely to have time to build them, since the pace of the Russian offensive is not slowing down.
Now, Ukrainian soldiers are forced to retreat across the fields under Russian fire. Anticipating the imminent retreat, the Ukrainian forces did not mine the fields. This gives the advancing Russian forces the opportunity to immediately continue their attacks to the new line of Ukrainian defense.
Meanwhile in Kiev, the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army has not yet admitted defeat, but has already identified those guilty in the retreat:
“The situation is particularly tense in the Avdiivka and Zaporizhia directions… During the work, certain commanders were found to have certain miscalculations in the command of the situation at the front, which affected the stability of defense in certain areas,” the Commander—in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine declared on February 29.
