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Written by Piero Messina
Tunisia is one step away from the abyss. Plenipotentiary President Kais Saied dissolved parliament. The legislative assembly was suspended on July 25 last year. In fact, on that date, with the removal of the premier, Hicham Mechichi, and the suspension of Parliament led by the president’s main political rival, the leader of Ennahda, Rached Ghannouchi, the last phase of the Tunisian crisis began.
Step by step, Saied built an autocratic regime, replacing the government and also putting pressure on the judiciary. Saied decided to dissolve Parliament after the Assembly’s decision to convene itself on March 30th. The parliamentarians, meeting by videoconference, had voted for the annulment of the exceptional presidential decrees that give President Saied almost absolute powers. Meanwhile, the president of the Tunisian parliament, Rashid Ghannouchi (leader of the Islamist movement Ennadha) announced his refusal to dissolve the legislative institution and denounced the fact that, in the meantime, dozens of deputies had been summoned by the police to be subjected to a interrogation by the authorities.
Saied condemned the deputies’ initiative and called it a failed coup attempt. Many Tunisian parliamentarians, including Ghannouchi (president of the parliament and leader of Ennadha) were summoned by the National Guard’s anti-terrorism brigade. Ghannouchi will be questioned by the military. His eventual arrest would cause the anger of the squares to explode.
Saied’s move complicates the dramatic economic crisis in Tunisia. As the Tunisian president announced the dissolution of parliament, Tunisia was looking for ways to persuade its financial partners and international institutions to continue supporting the economy. To avoid default, Tunisia needs external financing of at least 12 billion dinars (about 4 billion dollars) in order to guarantee the basic necessities of imports and the payment of wages.
According to many local observers, Saied’s decision amplifies the country’s economic and social difficulties in light of the difficulties of life and the decline in purchasing power and the local currency.
The decision to dissolve Parliament came hours after Finance Minister Siham Namsieh announced that there were positive indications about the loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The announcement by the European Union had also arrived of its intention to allocate 4 billion euros in investments in Tunisia. But the criterion that all international partners are asking for is the political stability of government institutions and internal consensus: the International Monetary Fund is calling for a very tough reform program for the population. For the investment bank Morgan Stanley, Tunisia is doomed to default. Morgan Stanley warned about Tunisia’s inability to meet its obligations to creditors, warning that Tunisia will default on its debts if the current deterioration in the state’s public finances continues. He believes this could happen next year unless the country quickly reaches a program with the IMF and initiates deep spending cuts. Even the credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the Tunisian sovereign debt rating to (CCC) from (B-).
Now we have to wait for Saied’s next move. Article 72 of the Constitution provides for the holding of legislative elections within a period of 45 to 90 days from the date of entry into force of the decision to dissolve the legislative institution.
