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The past year was marked by the following major military events.
1. A wide-scale offensive of the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) on the entire front line. The seizure of Avdeevka, Selidovo, Ugledar, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka. In 2024, there were no strategic changes on the front that would lead to the victory of one side or another. However, the Russians cracked the Ukrainian defense and created conditions for further large-scale advance. Thus, the conquest of Avdeevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic gave impetus to an offensive that has already led Russian troops to the outskirts of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), the encirclement of Kurakhove, and the access to the Dnipropetrovsk Region borders.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) were able to seize the initiative at the operational level only in August-September in the Kursk direction. At the same time, we cannot but say that despite military failures and personnel reshuffles, as well as decline in the quality of mobilization resources, Ukraine has not allowed the front to collapse during the current year.
2. The Kursk adventure of the UAF, which turned the situation on the front line, but not in the way the Ukrainian authorities expected. Kiev’s bet on Kursk weakened the entire front line. After the UAF invasion of the Kursk Region, paradoxically, things went much better for the Russian troops. Ukraine lost there about 50 thousand soldiers and officers from elite units, as well as several hundred tanks and infantry combat vehicles. To put it simply, for the sake of Kyiv’s short-term political goals, the Kursk Region has turned into a graveyard of Ukraine’s best troops and military equipment.
3. The “drone revolution” continuation: rapid development of drones on fiber optic cables, UAVs with machine vision, retransmitter drones, etc.
The experience of 2024 showed the Russian military commanders how terrible was a mistake of the generals to neglect medium-altitude long-endurance UAVs. We are talking about all those “Predators,” “Ripers,” and “Bayraktars,” which the Russian TV experts, who were fed by the military department, loved to laugh at as they cheerfully talked about the dashing and all-eliminating Pantsir SHORAD system. Pantsirs are really good, except that they cannot hang over the front line for days on end, providing situational awareness to the HQs on the ground.
The RAF’ special military operation in Ukraine obviously could have gone differently, and inevitably would have, if Russia had at least ten regiments of unmanned aviation equipped with Orion and Altair drones when hostilities began.
However, in the Kursk Region, the Russian military began to massively use “wonder-FPV-drones” on fiber-optic cables. They have become a huge problem for the UAF, since such UAVs cannot be neutralized by electronic warfare systems. Even the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, said this in his New Year’s Eve interview.
4. Missile war. Massive strikes by the RAF against Ukraine in response to the launch of Western long-range missiles on Russian territory.
The decision of outgoing US President Joe Biden to allow the UAF to strike deep into Russia with Western long-range weapons was a kind of “farewell performance” of the politician out of his mind. Thus, the United States directly intervened in the Ukrainian conflict. The purpose of this step is to prevent any attempt to negotiate peace.
5. Forced mobilization in Ukraine. In 2024, many Ukrainians understood that a “war against Russia until the last Ukrainian” is not a joke or Kremlin propaganda, but the real policy of Kyiv and Washington. However, it seems to be too late to run away. Volodymyr Zelensky stepped up mobilization in the country despite huge political risks. It is reasonable to assume that preparations for a major ground operation are what behind the widespread atrocities of military commissioners on the streets of Ukrainian cities. A huge number of videos have recently been circulating on social media that show Ukrainian military recruitment employees breaking locks in houses at night and stealing men right out of bed, gassing them out of their cars at traffic lights, and simply fighting with them in full contact in broad daylight. Curiously, Ukrainian military commissioners do not use weapons because they fear nocturnal executions, while young men who are not ready to die for Zelensky are no longer afraid of criminal prosecution, so they fight back in full force.
6. Mutual UAV strikes. The RAF have reached a schedule of up to 100-plus Geranium UAV strikes per day. The Ukrainian military has also increased the total number of drones regularly attacking Russian regions.
7. Combat tests of the Russian hypersonic missile “Oreshnik” in Ukraine. Probably, it is the main military event of the year. So far, the “Oreshnik” in a non-nuclear configuration is the most powerful conventional weapon ever created. So, the belligerents have few trump cards left. The masks are dropped. The concept of deterrence has turned into the concept of direct threat of force.
8. The failure of Kyiv’s hopes for Western “wunderwaffe”. Following the Bayraktars, Leopards, Abrams and Strykers with Bradleys, the F-16 airplanes failed in Ukraine in a routine manner. But Russian “cartoon” missiles, old Soviet tanks with mounting cages on the roof, and drones on wires turned out to be effective weapons on the battlefield.
9. The sabotage and terrorist war escalating. The Kyiv authorities, supported by Western patrons, are intensifying sabotage and terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation. So far, Russia itself is debating whether it is worthwhile and time to “take off the white gloves”. Moscow is very reluctant to follow the criminal path of the American, British, Ukrainian and Israeli authorities, but war increasingly requires a departure from the conventional line of behavior.
10. Reshuffles in the Russian Defense Ministry top brass. The departure of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the Security Council, the arrival of economist Andrei Belousov to replace him, numerous corruption cases and real imprisonments of the MoD generals suggest that internal purges have begun in Russia, somewhat similar to those conducted by Joseph Stalin in 1937.
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