File image.
When Israel launched its attack on Iran on June 13 it was a surprise for everyone, but what was even more surprising was that both sides refrained from going all-in, turning the war into a series of strikes and counter-strikes, with neither achieving any of their main objectives.
In the two months leading to the attack, Iran and the United State engaged in indirect talks to reach a new nuclear deal. While the talks saw major progress, Tehran rejected a demand by Washington to halt uranium enrichment. President Donald Trump showed no interest in a military confrontation, but Israel attacked.
At the start of the attack, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, Israel stated that it wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in full.
The opening strikes, carried out by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Mossad spy intelligence, hit dozens of targets in western and central Iran, taking out most of the air defenses there. More than 20 senior military commanders and nuclear scientists were also killed.
Nevertheless, not all nuclear sites were hit. Natanz, a key nuclear enrichment facility located some 80 meters underground, was the main target. Israel said that the site was destroyed, but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported severe internal damage and contamination.
Just like the Israeli opening strike, Iran’s initial response, which consisted of an attack with some one hundred suicide drone, fell short of expectation.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would carry out a more serious response towards the end of the day, launching dozens of ballistic missiles at targets in Israel as a part of a retaliatory attack, codenamed Operation True Promise 3.
The Iranian missile attack was not strong enough to fully deter Israel, but it clearly threw it off balance, shifting the attention of the IDF from the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites, to its offensive capabilities.
The IDF dominated the skies over western and central Iran, including the capital of Tehran, for the rest of the war, but the IRGC kept launching missiles and drones.
June 15 saw one of the deadliest Iranian missile strikes on Israel, with at least nine killed in the central city of Bat Yam. For the next few days, the IDF focused on targeting Iranian missile sites and military industrial infrastructure. One strike on June 16 stood out, however, with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting headquarters in the heart of Tehran being targeted. This was the first sign of an Israeli plan to facilitate a regime change in Iran.
Later on June 19, the IDF struck the Arak heavy water reactor, in a move that was apparently meant to show that Iran’s nuclear program was still at the crosshairs. The reactor was destroyed. However, it was never operational and was always considered more of a side project within the main nuclear program.
After the strike on Arak, the Israeli attack reached a stalemate. This became clear on June 21, when the IDF struck the Isfahan nuclear site, in the second such attack since the start of Operation Rising Lion. The damage to the large complex was not that extensive.
At this point, it became clear that Israel needed direct help from the U.S., especially to target the Fordow underground uranium enrichment plant which remained untouched. Washington was already moving its assets in preparation to join the war. Still, Trump said that he will give Iran two weeks to accept an “unconditional surrender.”
Of course, Trump was just deceiving Iran, just as he did during the nuclear talks. On June 22, U.S. bombers dropped 14 massive bunker busting bombs on Natanz, which Israel claimed to have destroyed, and Fordow. Attack submarines also launched some 30 cruise missiles at Isfahan, which was targeted by the IDF not once, but twice.
Trump boasted about “destroying” the nuclear facilities. However, this was not confirmed by the IAEA. On June 23, the site was targeted again by the IDF, which said that it wanted to “disrupt” the accessibility to the site, indicating that it was not fully destroyed.
On the same day, Israel, having reached its limits, attacked symbolic targets in Iran. Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the targets included “the Basij headquarters, the Evin Prison for political prisoners and regime opponents, the ‘Destruction of Israel’ clock in Palestine Square, the internal security headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards, the ideology headquarters, and other regime targets.”
What followed the questionable American attack was an even more questionable response by Iran. The IRGC on June 23 launched some 14 missiles at Al Udeid in Qatar, a key U.S. Air Base. Not only were all the missiles apparently intercepted, but later reports revealed that the Iranians had coordinated the attack with Qatari officials.
After calling the Iranian attack a failure and confirming that it was coordinated, Trump surprised everyone overnight by announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Still, the morning of June 24 saw one of the largest Iranian attacks on Israel, with at least four people getting killed in the southern city of Beersheba. The IDF alleged that some of the missiles were launched after the ceasefire came into effect, which was denied by Iran.
Israel vowed a strong response, but Trump intervened, openly warning Israel to cancel its planned strikes on Iran. The IDF would later hit a single radar site near Tehran, in a symbolic strike.
“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” a furious Trump said of Israel and Iran.
With the war reaching a surprise ending, many questions rose about what Israel was trying to achieve and what Iran was attempting to prevent.
First, there is no doubt that Israel’s declared goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear program was nothing but a facade. Tehran never really intended to manufacture nuclear weapons. Even according to U.S. intelligence, such a decision was never taken by the Iranian leadership.
While many of Iran’s nuclear sites were damaged or destroyed all together, the Israeli and American claims of destroying the entire Iranian nuclear program are clearly far from being accurate. Even if everything was destroyed, Iran still has the know-how. On top of that, the fate of hundreds kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which was not at any of the targeted sites, remains unknown.
Moving to the second declared goal of the war, Israel did succeed in degrading the offensive and defensive military capabilities of Iran. But as evident by the last deadly missile attack, these capabilities remain a credible threat.
Of course, Iran from its side, failed to deter Israel and the U.S., although some observers may make the argument that Tehran never went all-in.
In reality, the war was likely meant to achieve something much larger, something that neither Israel or the U.S. would openly talk about. That goal is regime change. From the attack on the Iranian state TV, to the American intervention and the last Israeli strikes on so-called “regime targets” in Tehran, this was surely the goal all along.
For Israel and the U.S. it was a time to bring change to Iran, which lost most of its allies over the past year. The two likely hoped that the war would spark a wave of protests in the Islamic Republic, and likely decided to abruptly end the war when this didn’t happen.
Still, it is too early to assume that Iran has emerged victorious, despite the celebration reported in Tehran. This whole war was likely just the first round of many to come. The next round may take a covert shape. Those who couldn’t be killed in direct Israel attacks, could die in accidents. And if most Iranians decided to stand behind their government, at least some could be paid to organize protests and riots.
Iran passed a very difficult test, but going forward it needs to make many changes, first with its negotiation tactics, then in its military tactics.
There is no denying that Trump emerged as the main victor of this war. He helped start the war, then helped end it. While he entertained the idea of a regime change in Iran, he remains cautious of what would come next.
“I don’t want to see regime change in Iran — it creates chaos. They will not possess nuclear weapons — that’s the last thing on their minds right now,” he stated after the ceasefire.
Trump will likely see a new nuclear deal with Iran as another victory and Tehran should take advantage of this. Only a new deal could allow Tehran to rearm for real, to rebuild its traditional capabilities including its air force and air defenses, before Israel launches its next attack, under another pretext.
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