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The first day of Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by a series of important decrees. On the basis of the decisions taken, it is already possible to make certain predictions for the Republican’s five-year term. The contours of domestic and foreign policy are generally defined. Trump will undoubtedly stick to them. And unlike in 2017, the master of the White House has a team. It should be understood that the change from Democrats to Republicans in the current conditions means a change in the whole paradigm of the United States of America.
The Democrats represent the interests of transnational capital and corporations. First and foremost, the banking sector, the media, telecommunications and pharmaceuticals. They have a globalist foreign policy agenda. They strengthen military-political alliances, support international organisations. They’re moderate in regulating foreign trade, have an ideologically coloured approach to assessing certain political regimes. Democrats rely on so-called ‘rules’ (instead of international law) and seek to eliminate strong nation-states. Republicans (or rather Trumpists) rely on the real economy. The car industry and industry in general, high technology, the space industry – these are the interests of Donald Trump’s cohort.
Capital, which is the basis of the new president’s power, is linked to ‘soil’, not the absence of borders. To protect it, there is no need to carry out punitive operations around the world and spend billions of dollars supporting ‘kamikaze countries’ like Ukraine. It is in the interests of national capital to impose high tariffs on imported goods, to restrict innovative sectors of the economy in competing countries. It’s important to disengage from restrictive norms and rules of international organisations and to protect the state borders. Literally every one of these tasks is reflected in Donald Trump’s 20 January executive orders.
The US is pulling out of the Paris climate agreement and leaving the World Health Organisation. America is suspending aid to foreign countries (including Ukraine) for 90 days to assess the effectiveness of the measures taken. The current aid from the budget ‘serves to destabilise world peace by promoting in foreign countries ideas contrary to the development of harmonious and stable relations within and between countries’.
The president announced the introduction of high tariffs on imported products. In relation to the BRICS countries, they could reach 100%. From 1 February 2025, tariffs of 25% will be imposed on Canadian and Mexican goods. The European Union has even been given an ultimatum. Either EU countries buy more oil and natural gas from the US, or they will face high tariffs. According to Trump, the situation in which the trade deficit between the US and Europe is $300 billion is not normal.
The president also reiterated his demand that Europe dramatically increase military spending to 5 per cent of GDP. The United States has spent $200 billion more than its allies on aid to the Kiev regime. ‘
They have to balance things out,’ Trump declared.
‘The United States is demanding reciprocity from our partners. We will no longer bear the financial burden for countries that are unwilling to pay for their own progress. The days of blank cheques are over,’ said Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steven Whitkoff.
It is clear that the new administration wants to subjugate the Western Hemisphere and return to the Monroe Doctrine. The president once again said that the US would take back the Panama Canal. In 1999 it was given to Panama and not to China. Now the artery is being used by Beijing. The Americans need Greenland ‘for security’. Denmark will ‘make concessions’, the new master of the Oval Office is sure. A sharp increase in pressure on Liberty Island and Nicolas Maduro is announced. Cuba is back on the list of countries that sponsor terrorism. Joseph Biden had previously removed Havana from the list, but the decision only lasted a week. Oil purchases from Venezuela are stopped, causing serious economic problems for Caracas.
The main victim of Washington’s new policy is likely to be Mexico. In addition to the tariffs, a US military operation against drug cartels in the north of the Latin American country cannot be ruled out.
‘Mexico probably didn’t want it, but we have to do it. They’re killing our people,’ Trump threatened.
Drug cartels would be recognised as terrorist organisations. The experience of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya shows that ‘fighting terrorism’ usually leads to armed intervention. A state of emergency has been declared at the US-Mexico border to ‘repel a catastrophic invasion’ of migrants. An executive order is signed to restrict the right to US citizenship by birth.
One of the key areas of American foreign policy under Trump will be a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The war must end, the president reiterated. It remains unclear what instruments the White House intends to use to force Moscow into an unfavourable compromise. So far, Russian forces are continuing their offensive in all directions. It is proceeding slowly, but progressively and steadily. It is possible to provide the AFU with more weapons, but Ukraine is running out of mobilisation resources. As the new Secretary of State Marco Rubio rightly pointed out, Kiev’s problem is not that it is running out of money, but that it is running out of people.
It is very likely that Washington will reduce the financial tranches to Kiev and try to shift the main burden of financing to the European Union. At the same time, Russia will be put under economic pressure.
‘Putin has to make a deal. I think he will destroy Russia if he does not make a deal. I think Russia will be in big trouble. Look at their economy, look at the inflation in Russia. So I would hope that Putin and I would have a good relationship and we would find common ground,’ Trump says.
There are reasonable doubts about the success of such a plan. The Russian Federation has adapted to the sanctions regime. Washington has run out of restrictive instruments. It is impossible to impose more sanctions.
There are about 19,000 sanctions against Moscow. This compares with around 5,000 against Iran, over 2,000 against North Korea and 747 against Venezuela. Few would argue that the Kremlin is in a worse position than the Iranian or Venezuelan leaders. The Russian economy grew by almost 4% in 2024. Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.2 per cent over the same period. Eurozone GDP grew by just 0.8 per cent. A paradoxical situation is emerging in which those who impose sanctions suffer more than those who are subject to the pressure of sanctions. Restrictions have only unbalanced international trade and led to a surge in inflation.
Trump’s protectionist measures could revive the US real economy and correct foreign trade imbalances. US allies will become more like satellites than partners. However, the downside of Trump’s hardline policy will be the strengthening of the Russia-China alliance and the consolidation of anti-American countries around the Moscow-Beijing axis. As for Ukraine, the president’s excessive pressure on the Kremlin could have disastrous consequences for the Republican administration.
Trump’s former strategist during his first term, Steve Bannon, recently warned the new administration against escalation in Ukraine.
‘If we’re not careful, this will turn into Trump’s Vietnam. That’s what happened to Richard Nixon. He ended up being the master of the war and it went down in history as his war, not Lyndon Johnson’s,’ Bannon argued.
According to the thinker, the alliance of the defence industry, the Eurobureaucracy and Cold War hawks is preparing a trap for the president. The head of state wants to be dragged into a hopeless war from which he must get out as quickly as possible. Whether Trump will be able to avoid this trap, we will see in the next six months.
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