Click to see full-size image
The Ternovskaya dam located in the western part of the Kurakhovsky reservoir in the village of Stary Terny was destroyed. The first reports about the damage were shared on the morning of November 11. In the afternoon, it was confirmed by the footage from the scene and even an official message by the local Ukrainian authorities. The warring side are never to confirm their responsibility but the evident benefit supposes the culprit.
Probably, the Ternovskaya dam was blown up at about 08:50 by units of the 35th separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result of the explosion, a key hydraulic structure in the region was heavily damaged.
Moreover, according to Russian military sources, they also attempted to undermine the local Kurakhovskaya thermal power plant located on this reservoir. A photo from the area confirms that at least one of the station’s pipes was damaged. This is reportedly not the result of shelling, but a consequence of explosions aimed at undermining the station.
Click to see full-size image
The destruction of the dam poses a threat to local infrastructure, agricultural lands and numerous villages located further west downstream of the Volcha River. The rise of water has already led to an increase in its level by about 1.5 meters. The Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of the local population.
Of course, the undermining of the dam also has a great effect on the ongoing fighting in the Kurakhovo direction.
Click to see full-size image
Ukrainian media and officials are actively blaming the Russians for the destruction of the dam. This was allegedly a Russian sabotage group ordered to complicate Ukrainian military supplies in the area.
However, the reports of the Ukrainian propaganda raise many doubts. An operation by the Russian sabotage group in a daytime in the immediate rear of the enemy, which has concentrated significant forces to protect such a strategically important facility as the dam, would be extremely risky.
The village of Stary Terny and the Ternovskaya dam itself are under the full control of the Ukrainian Army so far. At the moment, fighting is ongoing in Sontsovka to the north and in Ilyinka, Berestki to the east. Russian control of the village of Stary Terny will allow the Russian army to take a close fire control of wide areas around Kurakhovo from the northwest, heavily complicating any maneuvers and supplies to the Ukrainian group, without the need to destroy the dam.
The encirclement on its northern flank poses the greatest danger to the Ukrainian garrison in Kurakhovo and today’s undermining of the dam is beneficial to the Ukrainian side. Given the strategic importance of the northern flank for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the potential threat of encirclement, destruction of the dam creates a natural barrier that slows down the advance of Russian troops, giving Ukrainian forces the precious time to regroup.
The destruction of the dam is another planned tactical maneuver by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to impede the advance of Russian troops. Such a desperate operation confirms that the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kurakhovo is critical. Of course, the flooding of a vast territory will slow down the Russian advance. However, given that the Russian army is surrounding Kurakhovo from several directions, it is unlikely that the flood may help Ukrainian forces change the power balance and save control of the town. Over time, the water level will drop, and the Ukrainian military will be left with destroyed infrastructure, which will affect the convenience of supplies, communications, troop rotation and evacuation from flooded positions in the area of Kurakhovo.
In the short term, the Ukrainian military has gained some advantage, but blowing up the dam can only delay the Ukrainian defeat in Kurakhovo.
