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Nearly a month after the fall of the Assad regime, the situation in Syria remains unstable due to multiple internal and external factors.
Tensions between Turkey and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are still building up in the northeast of the country.
On January 1, two Turkish drone strikes hit the SDF in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. The first strike targeted a post of the group, which is backed by the United States, close to the Kara Cossack Bridge, killing three fighters and wounding several others.
Another drone strike targeted a sugar factory controlled by the SDF close to the town of Deir Hafer. No casualties were reported there.
The Turkish military also suffered losses, with a Bayraktar TB2 combat drone being shot down by the SDF over the Kara Cossack Bridge.
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In the days leading to the drone strikes, heavy clashes between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the SDF were reported in the eastern Aleppo countryside. The clashes saw heavy use of FPV suicide drones by the SDF, which resulted in the destruction of Turkish military equiptment including radar and electronic warfare stations.
Despite the tensions with Turkey, the SDF remains open to dialogue with the new Syrian government, which is led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
On December 30, a meeting between HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohamad al-Julani, and a delegation of the SDF was held in an air base close to the capital, Damascus. The meeting was reported positive. No details were revealed by either side.
While HTS is making some progress with the SDF, the group control over the southeastern region, mainly over the governorate of al-Suwayda, which is controlled by local Druze armed factions, remains weak.
Over the night of December 30 and January 1, a convoy of HTS’ security forces attempted to enter al-Suwayda in order to take control of government buildings there. However, the convoy was blocked by local Druze fighters and forced to retreat.
Commenting on the incident, the spiritual leader of the Druze community, Hekmat al-Hijri, said that the convoy was forced to retreat because it was sent without coordination.
Besides the situation in al-Suwayda, HTS has been also facing public pressure over Israel’s continuous military operations in the southern region.
On December 31, a unit of the Israeli Defense Forces entered Ba’ath City in the governorate of al-Qunitra. Israeli troops stormed several government buildings, including the Supply Directorate, the Real Estate Bank, and the automated bakery, under the pretext of conducting inspections.
All in all, Syria is facing serious internal and external challenges. The country may be heading towards a new war, one that would be far more complex than what we saw before.
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