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Click to see the full-size image
The speed and effectiveness of the Azerbaijani advance in the Nagorno-Karabakh region slowed down after it reached the mountainous terrain near Shusha and the Lachin corridor. From rapid advances, Azerbaijani forces appeared to be stuck in a kind of position fighting. The intensity of clashes did not reduce and both sides still regularly suffer notable casualties. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani forces are still deployed just south of Shushi and pose a serious threat to the defenders of the town. Some sources say that they are now even regularly shell the road linking the Lachin corridor and the town.
The Armenian side regularly reports that it is successful in repelling attacks of Azerbaijani forces. For example, on November 3, at 1:30 PM loca time, the Armenians reportedly repelled the Azerbaijani attack in the Karvachar area:
In the Karvachar area, at 1:30 pm, #Azerbaijan fired smoke bombs &tried to remove the corpses of the soldiers that they had lost in the valley the previous day. However, the #Armenia‘n side used precise artillery fire and bombs to repel the adversary, which left 2 dead bodies 1/3
— Armenian Unified Infocenter (@ArmenianUnified) November 3, 2020
At 2:30 pm,accumulation of #Azerbaijan'i forces was noted in battle positions in Karvachar.Our forces took the necessary measures to destroy 4 soldiers and prevent this attempt at consolidation
Tactical situation in both Karvachar & on other fronts remains under DA control 3/3— Armenian Unified Infocenter (@ArmenianUnified) November 3, 2020
There are particularly heated battles taking place in the E & SE sections of the front line in #Artsakh–#Azerbaijan’i conflict zone.
Az continues to suffer losses:, at around 14:10, the Defense Army destroyed 2 tanks and confiscated at least 1 infantry fighting vehicle in East— Armenian Unified Infocenter (@ArmenianUnified) November 3, 2020
An alleged ‘special forces unit’ of Azerbaijan was also ambushed by Armenian forces near Tagavard, in the same south-east part of the frontline:
Meanwhile, the number of Azerbaijani casualties claimed by Armenia reached 7,095. 251 UAV, 16 helicopters, 25 planes, 685 armoured vehicles and 6 rocket launchers have also been destroyed since the start of the war, according to Armenia.
The losses of #Azerbaijan
Потери Азербайджана pic.twitter.com/WiMDIPSWBi— Armenian Unified Infocenter (@ArmenianUnified) November 3, 2020
An anti-tank guided missile strike on Azerbaijani forces:
A unverified video allegedly showing the shooting down of an Azerbaijani plane:
The map below shows the military situation in the region, according to the Armenian Defense Ministry. This variant of the situation is much more optimistic, but even it shows that Azerbaijan seized the entire south.
Click to see the full-size image
The Azerbaijani military, in own turn, reports regular successes on the battlefield while pro-Azerbaijani sources vow to capture Shusha and the Lachin corridor in the coming days (what is unlikely due to the heavy fortifications in the area). Armenian saboteur groups also appear in statements by the Azerbaijani military as the permanent factor impacting the situation behind the frontlines. Azerbaijan still has a lot to work if it wants to secure the recently captured areas.
Azerbaiijani strikes hit Armenian forces in the Khojavend area:
Armenian battle tanks were targeted in the same area:
In general, the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc still keeps the initiative but the Armenians used their chances to stabilize the situation and if Baku does not achieve a breakthrough in the coming month, the deteriorating weather conditions together with the increasing losses will slow down the Azerbaijani advance even further.
The issue of the presence of Turkish-backed Syrian militants fighting on the side of Azerbaijan also plays not into the hands of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
In an interview with Kommersant, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the number of Turkish-backed militants in the area reached 2,000.
“We are, of course, concerned about the internationalization of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the involvement of militants from the Middle East. We have repeatedly called on external players to use their capabilities to stop the transfer of mercenaries, whose number in the conflict zone, according to available data, is already approaching two thousand,” he said.
“We have never concealed that we do not support the military solution of the crisis, we strive for an early cessation of hostilities. It is important for both the parties and all their external partners to strictly respect the ceasefire agreements, the creation of a control mechanism and the resumption of a substantive negotiation process process with a specific schedule.”
“Although it was not immediately possible to reach a stable ceasefire, we will continue to use all our influence in the region, we will work with our Turkish partners to stop the further unfolding of the military scenario, establish a dialogue between the parties and persuade Baku and Yerevan to sit down at the negotiating table.”
“Although it was not immediately possible to reach a stable ceasefire, we will continue to use all our influence in the region, we will work with our Turkish partners to stop the further unfolding of the military scenario, establish a dialogue between the parties and persuade Baku and Yerevan to sit down at the negotiating table.”
The Armenian leadership seems to understand this and recently increased its media and diplomatic activity using the ‘anti-terrorist narrative’. If Yerevan is able to convince the international audience that actions of the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc in Nagorno-Karabakh increases the terrorist threat not only in the South Caucasus but also in Europe, it will become for Armenia much easier to receive additional support in the ongoing standoff.
