Illustrative Image
Kyiv’s much-publicized “Spiderweb” operation, targeting Russian long-range aviation bases, has fallen far short of the spectacular results claimed by Ukrainian officials. While the attack demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to pose threat to strategic facilities deep in the Russian rear regions, newly released satellite imagery reveals that the actual damage was heavy but minimal, contrary to Ukrainian propaganda portraying the operation as a decisive blow to Moscow’s strategic capabilities. LINK, LINK
Ukrainian intelligence services described the attacks as the culmination of an 18-month preparation, deploying drones from disguised civilian trucks to strike five strategic airbases in Olenya, Dyagilevo, Severny, Belaya, and Ukrainka. Initial reports from Kyiv boasted of destroying or damaging over 40 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers—a claim that, if true, would have represented a significant degradation of Russia’s long-range strike capacity.
Satellite Imagery Tells a Different Story
Recent high-resolution satellite images of the targeted bases, however, paint a far less dramatic picture. At Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan region, where Ukrainian sources claimed successful strikes, no damage to aircraft or infrastructure is visible. The only notable marks are minor scorch patterns on the ground, likely from intercepted drones. Similarly, imagery from the Ivanovo airbase shows no significant impact, despite Ukrainian assertions of heavy losses. Russian aircraft are seen covered with tyres undamaged.
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The most substantial confirmed damage was confirmed at the Belaya airbase in the Irkutsk region, where up to eight bombers (four Tu-95MS and four Tu-22M3) were reportedly hit. Yet even here, satellite analysis suggests that the worst-case scenario—a mass destruction of Russia’s nuclear-capable fleet—was avoided. Nearby Tu-160 bombers appear untouched, and the full extent of damage remains unclear.
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Western propaganda also shared the low-quality imagery of the Ukrainka airfield in the Amursk region, claiming damage to at least one more Tu-95MS, but this claims are not reliable, since the quality does not confirm them, and the trucks with FPR drones reportedly burnt down before reaching this airbase.
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Ukrainian Propaganda and Fabricated Evidence
Kyiv’s narrative has been further undermined by blatant disinformation. Social media channels circulated AI-generated footage purportedly showing destroyed MiG-29 and MiG-31 fighters—a crude fabrication easily debunked by experts but widely shared to create the illusion of Russian vulnerability. Such tactics, increasingly reliant on AI, aim not to convince the experts and military reporters but to manipulate public perception through rapid, emotionally charged dissemination.
A Tactical Strike, Not a Strategic Victory
While the attacks demonstrated Ukraine’s capacity to penetrate Russian defenses at extreme distances, the actual military impact was marginal. The gap between Kyiv’s claims and verifiable results underscores a broader pattern of exaggeration—a psychological operation designed to sustain Western support rather than deliver decisive battlefield effects. As the war continues, the disparity between Kyiv’s narratives and ground realities grows ever more apparent.
