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The first half of the week in the east of Ukraine was marked by further advances of forces of Russia, DPR and LPR in the region of Donbass.
The most active military developments are taking place around Izum in the south of Kharkiv Region, in the area of the Seveorodnetsk-Lysichansk agglomeration in the Luhansk Region and in the eastern countryside of Donetsk city in the Donetsk Region.
In Kharkiv, Russian units have mostly finished the regrouping around the provincial capital establishing fortified positions in its countryside. According to reports, regrouping was ongoing amid limited direct clashes with Kyiv’s forces. Most of the fighting there has been taking place in the format of artillery duels. The general situation in the countryside of Kharkiv could be described as prolonged positional battles.
Meanwhile, intense fighting caused by the active offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces is ongoing in the area south of Izum. Russian ground units are advancing towards the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway amid intense artillery and air strikes on positions of Kyiv’s forces.
Clashes have been ongoing in the entire area around Izum. In particular, as of May 10, Russian troops took control of Bolshaya Kamyshevakha, and engaged Kyiv’s units in a new round of clashes around Novaya Dmitrovka.
The Kyiv government had to involve its free forces in an attempt to contain the Russian advance there and thus took a hit in another sector of the area of operations. On May 7, Russian-led forces took control of the key area of Popasnaya. As of May 10, the Russian military created a threat of encirclement of the entire grouping of Kyiv’s forces in the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk area.
Positions of Kyiv’s troops in Zolotoe already found themselves almost cut off from their counterparts in Bahmut and Slavyansk. Now, Russian units and people’s militia of the Donbass have been developing an advance from the area of Popasnaya.
Likely, the Kyiv government will try to leave a part of the grouping remaining in the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk sector as cover for its withdrawing troops. Therefore, the town of Bahmut will become the next key strongpoint of Kyiv’s troops.
As to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the Kyiv leadership will encourage radical formations to take civilians there as hostages in an attempt to repeat the Mariupol scenario. Thus, Russian forces will once again need to carry out a complex operation to rescue civilians in urban conditions amid intense fighting.
The the north of Donetsk, in the Avdiivka district, DPR units and Russian troops took control of Novoselovka, Verhnetoreckoe, Novobahmutovka and blocked Avdiivka from the northeastern direction. Nonetheless, Kyiv’s forces are still able to keep control of Avdiivka itself using well-fortified positions there. This sector will fall with the fall of the rest of Kyiv’s defense to the north of it.
In the area of Mariinka, to the southwest of Donetsk, positional battles are ongoing and the frontline remains stable.
In the Ugledar region, the advancing grouping of Russian and DPR forces achieved a tactical breakthrough encircling Ugledar from the eastern flank. Now, the fate of this town is predetermined and it will likely be liberated when the Russians intensify operations in the sector to the west of Donetsk.
The frontline remains stable in the directions of Gulyai-Pole, Zaporozhye, as well as near Krivoy Rog and Nikolaev.
In Mariupol, the garrison of Kyiv’s forces that hides in the Azovstal plant and mostly consists of radicals are about to meet its long-expected fate. The lack of resources and Russian advances already forced the radicals to release a large number of civilians that were hostages.
As developments of the recent days demonstrate, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have been successfully using their advantage in fire power to eliminate manpower and equipment of Kyiv’s forces in the region of Donbass. In its own turn, pro-Kyiv troops are in fact locked in their fortified positions in the region and are unable to organize a fast and successful regrouping and withdrawal under the conditions of the Russian advantages in firepower and air power.
