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Written by Damir Nazarov
The Turkish advance through its Syrian proxies towards the capital of the self-proclaimed Rojava has noticeably slowed down, and it is not only due to the lack of support from Tahrir al-Sham and the stubborn resistance of the SDF units, the collective West and Zionism are directly talking about their readiness to support the Syrian branches of the PKK if they are threatened with collapse.
France, Germany, the regular statements of the Zionists and the two-faced behavior of Trump, who one day praises Erdogan, but the next talks about the Kurds of Syria as important allies, all this throws Ankara’s plans into disarray. But what is most surprising for the Turkish leadership is the behavior of the former Syrian al-Qaeda, which since seizing power began to create various pretexts to avoid direct participation in the Turkish campaign against “Rojava”. For example, the jihadists organized an operation to “eliminate the remnants of the regime on the coast of Latakia”. “Concerns” about the presence of weapons in the hands of most factions of the former opposition are also a cause for concern for Syrian al-Qaeda. The absence of a number of important figures of the former insurgents of the south and north of the country in the list of factions that expressed a desire to create a common army for the new regime is also a subject of “concern” for Ahmed al-Sharaa. But in reality, all these reasons for “headache” for Damascus are artificially created by the jihadists themselves, in order to demonstratively avoid participation in Turkish plans. The motive for such behavior from Tahrir al-Sham is the fear of angering the West and receiving personal sanctions.
The new dictator of Syria has already met with the delegation from the SDF several times, where he assured them of the need for peaceful coexistence, and against this background, immediately after Erdogan’s threats against the Syrian branch of the PKK, Hakan Fidan indicated that if the new Syrian government does not solve the PKK problem, then there will be a need for a new military operation. Here are the first significant disagreements between Ankara and the Syrian jihadists. The Kurdish crisis between the parties has begun to manifest itself even on the battlefield, where, due to “local chauvinism”, the Arab component of the “national Syrian army” was noticed going over to the side of HTS.
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The Turkmen dominance in the leading positions within the pro-Turkish factions is beginning to irritate the Arab majority, the Turks understand this, so talk of introducing their troops into Syria under the pretext of fighting the PKK and ISIS is becoming more and more frequent on the part of the Turkish establishment. The distrust of Arabs in the highest echelons of the Turkish Ministry of Defense is colossal. The question arises: how did the Turks plan to create a Syrian army from scratch when even on the united anti-Kurdish front there are differences along ethnic lines?
In terms of strategy, Turkey has already won in Syria. After all, the Qatar gas project is already on the table and waiting for its time, the EU urgently needs new suppliers of hydrocarbons against the backdrop of problems with the Russian Federation. Among other major projects, the revival of the railway through Syria from the times of the Ottoman Empire. Therefore, a possible Turkish intervention should be considered not only as a way to fight terrorists, but also as protection of the Syrian mechanism of the Silk Road. Based on such plans, the Zionist threats to occupy part of southern Syria and the designation of Turkey as a “new strategic challenge” can be seen as an American-Zionist attempt to disrupt the Chinese plan to revive the “great caravan route”.
Therefore, despite the success, Ankara paints a picture of its victory only in the media, while on the ground there is still much work to do to make the “theoretical victory practical”. In addition to the Zionist expansion, the probable Syrian feud may postpone all Chinese-Turkish-Qatari projects for a certain period. Therefore, the paradox is that Turkey has won, but is not sure of its “victory”.
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