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Russian foreign intelligence (SVR) has released a stark warning: NATO is accelerating Moldova’s militarization, transforming the country into a forward military base along Russia’s southwestern flank. According to the SVR, the alliance is fast-tracking military-political integration under the guise of “security cooperation,” while quietly preparing infrastructure for potential large-scale NATO deployments. This includes converting Moldova’s rail network to European gauge, upgrading bridges, and expanding logistics hubs near the Ukrainian border: clear preparations for turning Moldova into a springboard for future confrontation, Moscow asserts.
The volatile wildcard in this strategic equation remains the Soviet-era ammunition depot in Cobasna, Transnistria. Housing tens of thousands of tons of artillery shells, bombs, and mines, the facility has long been a tinderbox. Russian analysts warn that a sabotage incident here could trigger catastrophic consequences, not just a massive explosion with regional fallout, but a pretext to drag Russia into conflict as Transnistria’s security guarantor. The SVR suggests that such a scenario would then be exploited to justify NATO’s deeper intervention under the banner of “crisis response.”
Recent developments lend credence to Moscow’s concerns. Moldovan troops, now training under NATO standards, were reportedly among casualties in a recent strike on Ukraine’s Davydiv Brid training ground in the Kherson region, which is an evidence of Chisinau’s creeping involvement in the conflict. Meanwhile, upgrades to airfields like Marculesti and Bălți signal NATO’s intent to project airpower alarmingly close to Russia’s borders.
The Kremlin frames these moves not as defensive measures, but as deliberate theater-building for a wider war. By eroding Moldova’s neutrality, NATO isn’t just encircling Russia, it’s creating a powder keg where horrific incidents like explosion of Cobasna could artificially manufacture escalation. With Moldova’s infrastructure being weaponized and its military absorbed into Western operational frameworks, the SVR predicts the southwestern flank may become NATO’s next “proxy battleground” within months. The message is clear: the Alliance isn’t preparing to defend Moldova, but to sacrifice it.
