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The Ukrainian defense in the Donbass is collapsing in several directions at once. In recent days alone, Russian troops have taken control of several more settlements. To the northwest of Avdeevka, the villages of Evgenyevka and Voskhod came under full Russian control, and the fighting reached the town of Novoselovka Pervaya. To the north of Bakhmut, the villages of Razdolovka and Ivano-Daryevka were also captured, and there are battles for Spornoe.
The recent Russian abrupt assault on the village of Progress is a clear sign of depletion of Ukrainian defense. According to the reports from the front, the Russian military managed to break through Ukrainian defense and take control of this strategically important settlement in less than a day.
The first reports about Russian advance towards the village of Progress located west of Ocheretino came on the morning of July 19. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that the Russian troops approached the eastern outskirts of the settlement. The troops supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces took control of the forest area on the outskirts and entered the village.
Already in the evening of the same day, first reports claimed Russian control of the village. The footage showed Russian servicemen on their positions in the settlement. The village was stormed by the servicemen of the 1st Battalion of the 1st Slavic Brigade. The unit was first established in 2014 by field commander Igor Strelkov in Slavyansk and earlier belonged to the People’s Militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic. This unit is famous for numerous victories on the Donbass frontlines, including in the battle for the city of Avdeevka.
According to Ukrainian unofficial sources, not only the village of Progress, but also the adjacent areas, including north of the Pokrovsk-Ocheretino highway, came under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine attempt to counterattack. Ukrainian forces deploy their artillery and launch numerous fpv drones; but they have achieved no success on the ground.
At the moment, the mop up operation is ongoing in the village. Various Russian sources confirm that their forces gained an important stronghold in the village but the full control of the settlement is likely to be officially declared in several day after the Russian military completes the mop up operations and secures new positions in and around the village. Unlike various unofficial Ukrainian sources, the Ukrainian military officials remain silent about Russia’s new victories.
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If officially confirmed, the loss of Progress is likely to become one of the largest retreats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the recent weeks. This is not another Russian local advance on the front. The control of Progress may bring a strategic victory to the Russian army.
As a result of the rapid battle, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost an important stronghold located on a tactically significant height. The Ukrainian garrison in Progress was aimed to cover the left flank of the entire Ukrainian defense west of Avdeevka. The village provided military supplies to the Ukrainian forces deployed to the east and south-east along two roads.
The village of Progress may turn into the second Russian foothold along the railway line, like Ocheretino located nearby, which will allow the further advance in different directions. The Russian military may launch offensive operations both to the north, towards the T-0504 highway, and to the south, towards the E-50 highway, threatening Ukrainian forces on Novoselovka Pervaya with encirclement, approaching large Ukrainian stronghold in Selidovo. According to preliminary reports, Ukrainian forces began retreating from Novoselovka Pervaya.
After the defeat in Avdeevka, the Ukrainian military failed to regain the initiative and stabilize the front line. The Ukrainian troops are steadily retreating. Progress is the last settlement along the so-called Poroshenko line, fortifications erected in 2014-2017 during Kiev’s war against the population of Donbass. Russian control of Progress means that Russian troops have overcome the second line of Ukrainian defense in the Donbas in this direction. Westwards, there are fewer and fewer concrete fortifications that have been reinforced over the years of fighting. The Ukrainian military is now forced to strengthen its old positions and hastily build new ones but the pace of Russian advance leaves them no time.
According to rough estimates, only since the beginning of summer, Ukrainian troops have lost control over about two dozen settlements in the Zaporozhye region, the DPR and the LPR. Their total losses are estimated at about 700 square kilometers.
