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Written by Piero Messina
Libya is in year zero. The term of office of the president of the national unity government Abdulhamid Dbeibah has expired since December last year. Like an expired yogurt Dbeibah, but it does not give up the reins of power, rather it relaunches by signing strategic agreements with Turkey, on national defense and oil extraction. Agreements that have sent the other Libyan “head of government” into a rage: Fathi Bashaga.
The Dbaibah maneuvers must sound like a mockery for the former interior minister of the time of Al Serraj. Bashaga, in Tripoli, represented the direct link between Ankara and Libya. For over six months, on a mandate from the Tobruk HoR, Bashaga has been trying to install his government. But every effort is useless: three times he also tried to attack Tripoli. But the clashes were unsuccessful. Libya, in reality, on an institutional, political and military level, has literally crumbled.
The role of Italian diplomacy has completely disappeared from the North African quadrant. Even the French are floundering on sight.
Bashaga does not give up and claims he can soon present a government plan: “which focuses on what could bring stability, peace and prosperity for Libya and its honorable people and ensure the holding of free and fair simultaneous presidential and legislative elections. “.
The role of General Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) should not be underestimated. Haftar aspires to become the country’s next president. The general started a tour in the south-east of the country, from Cyrenaica down to Fezzan: the area with the highest hydrocarbons in Libya. Haftar launched his campaign, urging the population to start a popular revolution against the “corrupt political class”.
Once again, therefore, there is talk of elections. We know how it turned out in the recent past. The flop of the scheduled elections last year had forced the United Nations to change part of its diplomatic staff. But the substantial difference this time is the presence on the ground of US and British diplomacy. Richard Norland, special envoy of the United States, explained how it is necessary to restart the electoral road map without hesitation. Washington would like to focus on new names, politicians not compromised with a past of mutual clashes and blackmail. The goal of Anglo-American diplomacy is to eliminate the two existing governments, aiming to reach an agreement with Al Manfi (president of the Libyan state, but substantially disappeared from the political spectrum in recent months).
At that point it will be necessary to form a provisional government, with a duration established by the international community, which will lead the country to the much desired elections. For this transitional government, at the top of Norland’s list are the names of Muhamed Al Muntasir (politician from Misrata) and Ahmed Maiteeq, former head of the interim government and former member of al-Sarraj’s presidential council. At their side there could be Aqila Al-Abbar, a university professor with experience in the States. Al Abbar’s name had previously been listed as a possible Foreign Minister for the Dbeibah government.
Great Britain, the historical key player of the Libyan sand, has also moved its pawns. Showing the muscles. At the end of September, the amphibious assault ship Hms Albion was stopped at the port of Tripoli. For analysts it was a sign of support for Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba’s government of national unity. The Albion is the first British Royal Navy ship to dock in the port of the Libyan capital in eight years.
With the center of Europe on fire, Libya risks becoming, just like in 2011, the scene of yet another proxy war, where clashes between local leaders are nothing more than a scale reproduction of the clash for global domination.
