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Written by Julian Macfarlane, Tokyo based investigative journalist, writer, author, geopolitical and military analyst
Some predictions ….
Geopolitically, a lot of things are happening all at once.
It’s a big and complicated drama with a lot of subplots— which are individually moving towards resolution .
Many think the US presidential election will be the climax of this made-for-the media show . But the denouement will inevitably come later to tie everything together for the future. And for the next season of the series.
The next season is brought to you….by God.
For now…..
The world’s economic future will be decided at the BRICS Summit.
Looking ahead just a few weeks. we see war continuing to escalate in the Middle East —beyond that the inevitable defeat of Israel, which if it continues to exist at all will be a very different state.
In Europe, the complete defeat of Ukraine looms — first, in occupied Donbas, Kharkov and other ethnic Russian areas, probably by the end of the year– with the likelihood of “Ukraine” ceasing to exist as an independent country in 2025.
Sorry, BlackRock you won’t get your money back!
The end of the dollar as the reserve currency is pretty much decided and could mean the end of the United States of Arrogance— unless of course it swallows its pride and joins the multipolar world— a virtual impossibility.
Despite what the MSM says, American economic collapse does not necessarily mean economic collapse for other countries. China and Russia will be mostly immune – and may actually benefit. In American vassal states there will be chaos, however.
What’s happening now ?
In Ukraine, the Russians have entered Ugledar , which is a key logistics hub for the Ukrainian forces in southern Donbas . They are also on the verge of taking Pokrovsk to the north, another hub, and retaking Krasny Liman in the LPR.
In Kursk, as I predicted, the UAF death toll has continued to rise.
I predicted at least 20,000 casualties. It is now close to 18,000 — not counting mercenaries–who are dealt battlefield justice for war crimes — summary execution. We will reach and exceed 20, 000 soon enough.
UAF casualties, all told, since the beginning of the war, are estimated at over a million.
So the war in Ukraine is clearly at a turning point. And the Russians are relentless.
The belligerence of the West leaves them no choice – Russia cannot allow an independent Ukraine on the border with NATO and Europe.
Also, with the rise of BRICS, Russia needs to win soon and end the war to shift focus onto the new world order emerging.
War in the Middle East
In the Middle East, the Israelis have called up reserves in apparenmt preparation for a ground offensive into southern Lebanon for which Hezbollah has long prepared , since the humiliating Israeli defeat of 2006 .
The US has is made token gesture of support adding a few thousand men to its ground forces in the Middle East – but it is just a token— it is unlikely to join a real war against peer level enemies. For that it needs proxies, which are dispensable in disposable – Ukraine and this time around, Israel. Dmitri Orlov agrees with me, although for different reasons.
The Russians have clearly taken sides in the ME— as they must if they want a multipolar world to succeed.
For Iran, EW systems and the S400 and possibly hypersonic technology. For the Houthis Oniks missiles .. Hezbollah already has them why not the Houthis .
Onyx missiles fly at 3000 km per hour, 10–15 meters above the water and are hard to shoot down with anti-air defenses or EW. The homing heads were updated in March 2024 and the missiles are even harder to defend against.
As it stands now . Hezbollah is launching constant strikes on northern Israel and has just launched a missile at Tel Aviv — plus one or more missiles at \West Bank settlements.
The missile launched at Tel Aviv was probably shot down at the expense of a lot of interceptor missiles — which apparently caused local damage in the city.
Nothing has been reported about the attacks on the West Bank — which probably means that they got through. Israelis censor all reports of damage, deaths, and injuries–so we don’t really know. Silence usually means an attack was at least partly successful. Of course, there is enough fake news on social media to confuse things too.
However these attacks on Tel Aviv and West Bank were really just warning shots. Hezbollah has a lot of missiles— some say as many as 100,000, depending on how you count. Obviously, not all are advanced missiles— but it is still a considerable arsenal.
If Hezbollah had really wanted to do damage to Tel Aviv they would’ve fired a volley of missiles. Israeli air defenses have an intercept rate of about 80%. That means that two out of ten missiles will always get through.
All these things, Ukraine, the Middle East, and a new economic world order should come to a head just after the BRICS Summit— but before the American presidential election as predicted.
Who Wins
It goes without saying, that no matter who wins — we all lose.
Right now, Kamala Harris is polling ahead of Trump overall.
But maybe not in the Swing States— which will likely determine success or failure in the electoral college.
In other words we could have a repeat of the 2016 election when I predicted Trump would lose popular vote but win in the electoral college and be the next president .
Let us keep in mind, that polls do often reflect the bias of the pollsters and must be regarded as tools in the MSM’s propaganda tool box.
This time around?
Too early to tell.
Let’s watch how events unfold.
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