Illustrative image. (Israeli Defense Forces)
Announcing the start of what appears to be an new military campaign, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 27 that he had instructed the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to “prepare an enforcement plan against Iran that includes maintaining Israel’s air superiority, preventing nuclear advancement and missile production, and responding to Iran for supporting terror activity against Israel.”
“We will act regularly to thwart such threats,” the minister in a post on X, summarizing the IDF’s activities during the 12-day war against Iran.
“I suggest the defanged head of the snake in Tehran, understand and beware: Operation Rising Lion was only the preview of a new Israeli policy, after October 7, immunity is over,” he added.
Israel started the war on June 13 with the goal of crippling Iran’s nuclear program. After gaining aerial superiority over the western and central regions of the Islamic Republic, the IDF expanded its target list to include offensive capabilities.
A ceasefire was suddenly announced on June 24, just two days after the United States joined the war by attacking three key nuclear sites in Iran.
Now, Katz’s remarks indicate that Israel wants to build up on what it sees as a major success by starting a “war-between-the-wars” against the Islamic Republic.
The Israeli term war-between-the-war refers to an inter-war campaign done through the IDF and the Israeli intelligence service to prevent the country’s enemies from developing capabilities that will enable them to violate Israel’s balance of deterrence through detecting and selectively destroying emerging threats to the country’s security.
Israel followed a similar policy towards Syria, targeting the country’s military capabilities overtly and covertly for over a decade until the regime there collapsed. It has been also carrying out a similar campaign against Hezbollah since a ceasefire with Lebanon brokered by the U.S. came into effect late last year.
The situation with Iran is, however, much different. While Syria refrained from responding due to its ongoing civil war at the time, and Hezbollah is doing the same due to pressure from the Lebanese government, the Islamic Republic has demonstrated time after time that it has both the ability and will to strike back.
For example, Iran is still holding onto its nuclear program. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on June 27 that a bill suspending cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog is now “binding” after being passed by lawmakers and approved by a top vetting body.
“The bill that was approved by [parliament] and has been approved by the Guardian Council today… is binding on us and there is no doubt about its implementation,” he told state television. “From now on, our relationship and cooperation with the [International Atomic Energy] Agency will take a new form.”
Nevertheless, determination alone will not be enough to foil Israel’s plans. Even retaliatory strikes won’t cut it. If Iran wants to survive the upcoming Israeli campaign it will have to develop its defensive capabilities, even before working on enhancing its offensive means.
Without closing its airspace and implementing security reforms, the Islamic Republic could eventually find itself with nothing to strike back with.
Katz’s remarks are very clear. Iran should prepare to face assassinations, acts of sabotage and even strikes in coming months. At the same time, it should give diplomacy a fair chance, especially by working with the United States, Russia and China who could curb the enthusiasm of Israel.
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