Illustrative image. (The Israeli Defense Forces)
Israel’s recent strikes on key air bases in central Syria were apparently meant as a message to Turkey, which has been working to expand its military presence in the war torn country since its Islamists allies managed to topple the Assad regime last December.
The T4, Syria’s largest air base, and the nearby Palmyra military airport in the eastern Homs countryside were hit by Israeli strikes on March 21 and 25.
Following both attacks, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said that it targeted “remaining military capabilities” at the air bases. Damage from the strikes was extensive, with the runway and multiple hardened aircraft shelters at the T4 being hit. In addition, warplanes and air defense systems were reportedly destroyed.
Israel’s worries about Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria began to grow immediately after the Islamist forces backed by Ankara took over the country.
The IDF invaded the buffer zone adjacent to the occupied Golan Heights in southern Syria just hours after the collapse of the regime on December 8. For the next few days, it launched some 500 strikes, destroying much of the country’s military capabilities.
In January, the “Security Budget and Force Building Review Committee,” known as the “Nagel Committee” after its chairman Yaakov Nagel, warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a report about the dangers of an alliance between Turkey and Syria.
The report stated, according to the Jerusalem Post, that such an alliance could “create a new and significant threat to Israel’s security,” potentially evolving into something “more dangerous than the Iranian threat.”
The committee concluded that Israel must prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkey in light of potential tensions due to what it described as “Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman influence.”
“The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the committee said in a report delivered to the primer, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability.
These worries began to materialize in February, when Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed a joint defense pact in Ankara, including establishing Turkish air bases in central Syria and training for Syria’s new army.
At the time, Reuters reported citing a regional intelligence official that Turkey could take over the T4 and Palmyra air bases.
In mid-March, a third air base located in northern Syria, further away from Israel came into picture. Turkish media reported that Menagh Air base in the northern Aleppo countryside was taken over by the Turkish military to be turned into a Joint Military Facility.
Around the same time, several reports emerged from Syria regarding aerial incidents that included friction between Israeli and Turkish air force warplanes. Nevertheless, these incidents were not confirmed by either side.
The Turkish moves were most likely behind the Israeli decision to launch the first attack against the T4 and Palmyra air bases.
Following the attack, Hebrew media reported that Netanyahu was holding security consultations to discuss concerns over Turkish influence in Syria.
The Walla news website, citing Israeli security sources, reported on March 23 that Syria was holding contacts with Turkey regarding the transfer of areas near Palmyra to the Turkish military in exchange for economic and military support for Damascus.
This development sparked significant Israeli concerns, the sources said, noting that the new Syrian regime was working to restore military bases and enhance missile and defense capabilities in the southern region.
Additionally, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu, through his advisors, was pushing Israeli media to portray that “a confrontation with Turkey on Syrian territory was inevitable.”
After these reports, the second wave of strikes hit the T4 and Palmyra. Unusual clashes broke out in southern Syria on the same day when an Israeli patrol came under attack near the town of Koayiah in the western Daraa countryside. The IDF returned fire and killed at least six local gunmen.
Aside from condemnations, Syria and Turkey have so far refrained from responding in any meaningful way to Israel’s recent actions. Yet, the two countries remain on the path of a strategic alliance.
Israel will likely attempt to reach some understanding with Turkey over the situation in Syria. At the same time it will likely continue to enforce several red lines, including some already announced by Netanyahu like the demilitarization of southern Syria and others unannounced ones like preventing the country from reobtaining advanced military capabilities, like air defenses.
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