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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
Hamas’ recent attack on Israeli occupation forces appears to have caused a “shock” to Tel Aviv supporters. So far, many Israeli citizens and Zionist activists around the world do not seem to believe that local security forces were really unable to predict Palestinian actions and prevent the enemy military maneuver. Unsubstantiated conspiracy theories circulate online suggesting that Tel Aviv “allowed” the attack, when in fact the scenario only shows that Israeli intelligence is unjustifiably overestimated.
This was a historic failure of Israeli intelligence, being a true paradigm shift in the history of the Palestinian conflict. For the first time, Arab Resistance’s forces were strong enough to break Tel Aviv’s brutal siege of the Gaza Strip and enter deeply into Israeli territory, capturing hostages, eliminating IDF soldiers and bombing strategic cities.
Such is the Israeli failure that some people are believing there is something behind appearances – some “secret plan” by Israel to use the situation to its advantage. Internet users have suggested the possibility of the move having been an Israeli false flag operation to justify an escalation in the conflict and an invasion of the Gaza Strip. These conspiracy theorists believe that Israeli intelligence discovered the Palestinian plans in advance but simply did not thwart them because it saw them as “strategically interesting.”
If analyzed from a realistic point of view, this narrative does not seem to make any sense. The Zionist regime never needed “provocations” to “justify” attacks on Palestine. The IDF frequently bombs Palestinian territory, even without the resistance’s forces having made any military move. Furthermore, even if a false flag eventually occurred, it would certainly not happen with a high-level attack capable of demoralizing the Israeli forces and inflicting real damage on the Zionist State. For sure, something small-scale and strictly limited would happen, not a move similar to what Hamas did.
These mistaken thoughts are due to a conviction created over the decades in the supposed “infallibility” of the Israeli defense and intelligence system. Some people have started to believe that Israel is a kind of “unreachable” country, and that Tel Aviv has the most efficient security architecture in the world, being “incapable” of making mistakes. But, of course, these are just illogical assumptions, which are not proven by material reality.
These perceptions happen because Israel has always been very efficient in protecting itself from its regional enemies. The defense and security architecture developed by the Jewish State has long freed the local population from the effects of military efforts made by neighboring countries and rebel organizations. But this has more to do with the strength of Israel’s enemies than with the efficiency of the Zionist forces themselves.
Israel has always dealt with much weaker enemies. Regional wars in Palestine have almost always been asymmetrical, with the IDF having a strong advantage over its adversaries. This asymmetry made many people mistakenly think that Tel Aviv had reached extremely high levels of effectiveness, becoming virtually “infallible”. More than that, apparently, the Israeli forces themselves arrogantly believed in their supposed superiority and began to ignore risks, as can be seen in the fact that Egypt warned Israel about the threat of a Palestinian attack and was ignored.
Excessive confidence in its own forces caused Israel to neglect signs that pointed to the existence of a Palestinian attack plan. Added to this, Hamas’ military development surprised the Israelis. Instead of a poorly armed gang facing modern Israeli tanks, the current scenario of the conflict is that of a militia with much more developed firepower, possessing medium-range missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, in addition to a reasonably sophisticated drone system.
Hamas, in cooperation with Israel’s regional enemies, greatly improved its military capabilities and became strong enough to bypass the Iron Dome air defense system through massive rocket launches, making it impossible for Israel to neutralize all the missiles. Also, it is possible to see that Palestinian soldiers are much better trained and equipped now, considering that so far Israel has not managed to completely expel them from its territory. The militia’s strength is clearly much greater than Israel was expecting, resulting in an intelligence fiasco. And now Israel resorts to terrorist practices like strikes on civilians zones, generating unnecessary human carnage.
Actually, Israel has now learned that it is not infallible and that its intelligence system, although strong, is not the “best in the world”. The case shows how strategic analysis is a task that must be done by professionals. Israel is an example of how analysts motivated by emotions misinterpret military phenomena and produce unrealistic narratives that often convince even state officials, generating mistaken strategies and decision-making.
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