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Tensions between Israel and Iran have reached an unprecedented level, with reports suggesting that an attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic may be imminent.
The escalation began on June 7 when Iran announced that it had obtained a trove of “strategic and sensitive” Israeli intelligence, including files related to Israel’s nuclear facilities and defense plans. Israel has for long maintained a policy of “nuclear ambiguity,” refraining from publicly acknowledging its nuclear arsenal.
Later, Iran promised to publish the intelligence materials, which were linked by some reports to an electronic attack that targeted Israel’s top-secret Soreq Nuclear Research Center last year.
Israel ignored the Iranian announcement, but began to escalate preparations to attack the nuclear facilities of the country.
Nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. reached a dead end at around the same time, with Tehran refusing to stop uranium enrichment.
On June 9, President Donald Trump said that he was “getting more and more – less confident” about a nuclear deal with Iran.
Late on June 11, preparations for a possible attack on Iran became very clear. The U.S. began drawing down the presence of people who are not deemed essential to operations in the Middle East. The voluntary evacuation included nonessential embassy workers in Iraq and the families of service members based in Bahrain and Kuwait.
In another sign of mounting tensions, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center issued a warning to ships in the region saying that it “has been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners.”
Responding to these measures, Iran’s mission to the United Nations posted on social media that “threats of overwhelming force won’t change the facts.”
On June 12, U.S. news outlet NBC reported that Israel is considering launching an attack on Iran in the coming days, even though Washington is unlikely to support the move. A separate report from CBS said that U.S. officials have been told Israel is “fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.”
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that senior Iranian military and government officials had developed a plan to immediately respond to an Israeli attack on the country’s nuclear facilities with a large-scale missile strike. Previous reports revealed that Tehran was prepared to attack nuclear facilities in Israel.
Despite the escalation, Oman confirmed on June 12 that a sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran over the weekend.
While the upcoming round of talks offer a chase for de-escalation, Israel could still go on with its plans and attack Iran. This could even happen before the talks, if the U.S. was indeed not enthusiastic about supporting such an attack. The ensuing conflict will likely affect most of the Middle East, from the Persian Gulf to the Levant.
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