Illustrative image. (The Israeli Defense Forces)
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) assesses that its attacks against Hezbollah since a November ceasefire could potentially force the group to disarm, The Times of Israel reported on July 29, citing military officials.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was brokered by the United States. The IDF didn’t only continue to target Hezbollah amid the ceasefire, but also kept troops at five strategic posts in southern Lebanon, the heartland of the group, in defiance of the agreement.
Since the start of the ceasefire on November 27, the IDF said that it has carried out over 500 strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing at least 230 operatives and destroying over 90 rocket launchers and thousands of rockets, 20 command centers, 40 weapon depots, and five arms production sites, alongside other infrastructure.
The military has also conducted hundreds of ground operations in southern Lebanon, mostly within the areas near the five posts.
Israeli troops located caches of weapons and destroyed infrastructure during these ground operations, according to the IDF.
The IDF assessed that Hezbollah was heavily degraded, mostly as a result of the two months of open warfare between September and November. But around 25-30 percent of the IDF’s achievements against Hezbollah were actually achieved during the ceasefire.
The military believes that out of the group’s 25,000 conscripted operatives, between 4,000 and 5,000 were killed and another 9,000 were wounded and are unable to fight. The group’s elite Radwan force is dealing with similar numbers, with just over half of its 6,000 operatives eliminated or badly wounded, according to the military’s assessment.
The IDF has also assessed that the group is unable to fill its ranks after most of its leadership was assassinated during the conflict.
As for firepower, the IDF claimed to have destroyed 70-80% of the group’s rocket fire capabilities. The military estimated that Hezbollah possesses several thousand rockets, the vast majority of them short-range projectiles like mortars, and only several hundred long-range ones.
Most of Hezbollah’s weapons are located in areas north of the Litani River, according to IDF assessments, after the military destroyed the group’s infrastructure near the border.
Speaking to reporters at one of the posts in Lebanon, outgoing IDF Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin told Israeli reporters, “I believe it would be very wise and beneficial for the state of Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The greatest damage Lebanon has suffered was because of Hezbollah, and it would be best if it no longer existed.”
“We will stay here for as long as needed and will provide strong and significant defense for the residents of the north,” Gordin added.
While most of the numbers provided by the IDF are questionable to say the least, there is no denying that Hezbollah took heavy losses as a result of the conflict with Israel. Still, all recent reports suggest that the group will not give up on any of its arms.
Israel will likely continue to escalate, and could go as far as renewing the war on Lebanon especially if a ceasefire was reached in the Gaza Strip.
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