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The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, which has so far claimed the lives of more than 46,000 Palestinians, appears to be nearing its end.
Talks for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage exchange deal between Israel and the Hamas Movement saw serious progress between January 13 and 14, with officials from both sides and from mediating countries estimating that a landmark agreement to end the 15-month war was near-finalized.
Media reports suggest that the two sides will agree on a three-phase agreement that would begin with the gradual release of 33 hostages over a six-week period, including women, children, adults over the age of 50, and severely sick and wounded civilians. In exchange, Israel would release as many as 1,000 Palestinian security prisoners.
During this first, 42-day phase, Israeli forces would withdraw from population centers, Palestinians would be allowed to start returning to their homes in northern Gaza, and there would be a surge of humanitarian aid, with some 600 trucks entering each day.
In the second phase, Hamas would release the remaining living captives in exchange for more security prisoners and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
And in the third phase, the bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan to be carried out in Gaza.
In the days leading to the breakthrough in the ceasefire talks, Israel took more losses in Gaza. Four soldiers were killed and six were wounded during fighting in northern Gaza on January 11. And on January 13, five soldiers were killed and ten others were wounded in the same part of the Strip.
Despite the progress in the Gaza deal, Israel stepped up its strikes against Lebanon, ignoring the ceasefire with Hezbollah.
On January 13, the Israeli military said that it struck a rocket launcher, a military site and smuggling routes on the Syrian-Lebanese border “used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah.”
The strikes come less than two weeks before the deadline under which the Israeli military and Hezbollah are due to withdraw from southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) continue to launch attacks against Israel from Yemen in support of Gaza.
Over the night of January 13 and 14, the group launched two Palestine 2 hypersonic ballistic missiles at Israel. The Israeli military said that both missiles were intercepted. However, a large fragment of the second intercepted missile struck a home in the town of Mevo Beitar, just outside Jerusalem, causing damage. 11 people were wounded while running to shelters.
Israel’s war on Gaza appears to be nearing its end. While this will certainly lead to de-escalation in both Lebanon and Yemen, it could encourage both Israel and the United States to escalate against Iran.
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