Click to see full-size image. (Screengrab\Telegram)
In a major escalation, Ukraine on June 1 attacked five air bases deep in Russia where bombers and other strategic aircraft are deployed using FPV suicide drones.
A source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) told CNN that the attack targeted the air bases of Olenya, Belaya, Ivanovo and Dyagilevo. The Russian Ministry of Defense later revealed that Ukrainka air base was also among the targets of the “terrorist attack,” which Ukrainian media referred to as Operation Web, or Spider Web.
Belaya in the Irkutsk region is located some 4,500 kilometers from Ukraine’s border with Russia, and Dyagilevo base in the region of Ryazan, which is located in western Russia about 520 kilometers from Ukraine, is a training center for Russia’s strategic bomber force.
Meanwhile, Olenya in the region of Murmansk in the Arctic Circle, is located more than 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine. Ivanovo in the region of the same name, mainly a base for military transport aircraft, is more than 800 kilometers from Ukraine.
The most remote of the bases, Ukrainka, is located in the Amur region, well over 6,000 kilometers away from Ukraine’s border.
According to Ukrainian media, the operation, which took one and a half years to prepare, was overseen by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and personally directed by SBU head Vasyl Malyuk.
The SBU source who spoke to CNN said that the operation was “extremely complicated from a logistical point of view,” with the drones carried inside wooden mobile homes that had been carried into Russia on board trucks.
“The drones were hidden under the roofs of the houses, which were already placed on trucks. At the right moment, the roofs were remotely opened, and the drones flew to hit Russian bombers.”
Ukrainian media published photos from the preparations for the operation, showing a model of the FPV suicide drones used in the attack as well as the mobile houses used as camouflaged launchers.
Click to see full-size image.
Click to see full-size image.
Click to see full-size image.
Click to see full-size image.
Notably, the drone model in the photos was armed with not one, but two warheads. Meanwhile, the ones seen actually loaded in the mobile homes were not armed in the same way and it didn’t appear that there is enough space for such a payload in the launch compartment hidden within the roof of the mobile houses.
Click to see full-size image.
At least eight mobile houses appeared in the photos, each can apparently hold upwards of 40 FPV suicide drones in eight rows.
Click to see full-size image.
Russian media was quick to identify and geolocate the warehouse where the attack was staged in the Chelyabinsk region, close to the border of Kazakhstan.
Click to see full-size image. Via Telegram.
The SBU source told CNN that more than 40 aircraft were hit during the attack, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and an A-50 airborne early warning and control plane.
Videos leaked by the SBU confirmed that both Olenya and Belaya were hit, with four Tu-195s and one An-12 cargo plane lost at the first air base and an additional Tu-195 and two Tu-22M3 getting struck in the second.
Oleyna on the left and Belaya on the right. Click to see full-size image. Via Telegram.
Near Belaya, civilians who noticed the drones being launched from the mobile houses intervened and reinstalled the roof plates, limiting the damage. Later, the houses were seen on fire.
Meanwhile, close to Oleyna, the man who was driving the truck carrying the mobile houses was reportedly arrested. Video footage also showed the body of another driver who was apparently strangled to death, although it is unclear where exactly the footage was taken.
The Russian MoD admitted in a statement that some aircraft caught fire in Oleyna and Belaya, but said that the attacks on the other three air bases were repelled.
“There were no casualties among military and civilian personnel,” the ministry added, noting that “some participants of the terrorist attacks were detained.”
There was no visual evidence confirming that Ivanovo and Dyagilevo were hit. According to Russian media, all the drones launched at the two air bases were intercepted, the launchers were found and the drivers were arrested.
Meanwhile, videos from Amur confirmed that the launcher that was meant to attack Ukrainka broke down on a road far from the air base. It is unclear if the driver was caught, but footage from the scene showed one of the two mobile houses loaded in the truck exploding. One civilian who was inspecting the house from the inside and others who were standing nearby were most likely hurt.
Ukrainian media alleged that the drones used in the attack were equipped with artificial intelligence models to detect and hit their targets on their own. The models were supposedly trained using examples of the Tu-195 and Tu-22M on display at the Poltava Museum of Long-Range and Strategic Aviation in Ukraine.
Still, the claim does not hold up as the footage released by the SBU confirms that the drones were in fact equipped with some sort of a datalink. Furthermore, Russian media identified the software interface from the drone footage as ARDUPILOT, which is usually used not just to receive videos, but also to control drones directly.
No antennas or control systems were found at the scene of the attacks, according to preliminary information. This led to speculation by Russian media that either Ukraine used satellite data links with help from one of its allies, or simply equipped the drones with SIM cards from Russian mobile carriers and used the network as a data link.
It’s worth noting that the operation came just hours after an attack that collapsed two bridges and caused train derailments in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. Seven people were killed and more than 70 others were wounded. Women and children were among the victims. The attack was very likely staged by the SBU to distract the upper echelons of Russian security apparatus and political leadership before the main operation.
The operation was an unprecedented escalation by Ukraine for many reasons. First it was clearly meant to degrade the nuclear deterrence capabilities of Russia. Second, it came just a day before the two countries are set to engage in another round of direct talks in Turkey.
It is highly unlikely that Ukraine just wanted to improve its stance before the talks. This escalation appears to be meant to blow up the talks all together. While this is not in the interests of Ukraine itself, as it is losing territory every single day, the allies of Kiev, namely the United Kingdom, Germany and France have been pushing in this direction.
The operation was clearly too complex on the technological and logistical levels for the SBU to pull it off on its own. In fact, it is believed that the intelligence service almost never operates alone. The German and French intelligence offered much support for Ukraine, but the British intelligence, namely the MI6, has been the main player helping the SBU when it comes to attacks on Russian territories.
Right after the operation, the Axios news website reported that Kiev had informed the administration of United States President Donlad Trump of the planned attack. Later however, the website issued a correction, saying that Washington knew nothing about the operation.
This contradiction indicates that some side, possibly Ukraine and the UK, wanted to frame Trump, which has been pushing for a reasonable settlement with Russia, as a partner in the operation, likely hoping to provoke a serious reaction from Russia.
While Moscow is guaranteed to respond to the attack, it will not likely abandon the talks in Turkey, just to prove to the U.S. who is blocking a settlement.
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