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Written by Piero Messina
A global blackout could bring down Europe for weeks on end. Fake news? Conspiracy theory? Let’s try to understand what is happening. The great fear of staying in the dark has nurtured centuries of Catholic tradition. It is one of the best known prophecies among the faithful of the Roman Church. Three days of total darkness: dozens of saints and prophets talk about it, clinging to a passage from the Apocalypse. In the era of hi-tech and digital, imagining that the world could suddenly find itself in the dark seems like a paradox far from reality.
Yet this is precisely the fear that snakes in Europe today. At first it was simply food chewed and served on social networks by swarms of conspiracy theorists, now the global blackout theme has become part of the mainstream narrative. But since the end of last year, exponents of European governments have declared it openly. Scientists and technicians warn that it is not a question of whether the global blackout will happen, but when.
For science, then, the biblical prediction is far too optimistic. We do not risk three days of darkness but whole weeks without electricity. A devastating blow to a continent already tried by the pandemic crisis.
Is it conspiracy? No. It is simply the statistical observation of a series of factors ranging from the complexity of the European network – entirely interconnected and therefore fragile – to the energy crisis linked to the increase in the cost of fuels, without forgetting the dominant geopolitical question. Europe could get all the gas its factories and operations need from Gazprom. But the niet at the opening of Northstream 2 – a clear sign of vassalage towards the US government – complicates matters terribly. European media have already pinpointed the possible culprit if things go wrong. Putin’s Russia. Nothing new, in the editorial offices of the major European publishing groups the favorite sport is to feed the Russophobic campaign. The concept is already outlined, “if this winter you die of cold and you have to say goodbye to your tablets and TV, the fault lies with comrade Putin”.
The facts are dramatically more serious. The ambition of the EU is to radically change its level of consumption, giving up all fossil fuels within 30 years. In the name of Greta Thunberg. What the young Swedish girl probably doesn’t know is the complexity of the world of energy distribution. The whole body of Europe is interconnected in a single grid. It is enough for a piece to jump and the whole system risks going ko. Converting this grid back to the green isn’t exactly easy. The European system is called Entso-e. European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, is the association for the cooperation of the European transmission system operators (TSOs). The 42 member TSOs, representing 35 countries, are responsible for the secure and coordinated operation of Europe’s electricity system, the largest interconnected electrical grid in the world. How risky it is to switch to green energy in terms of safety was explained by Maarten Hoeve, technology Director at the European Network for Cyber Security. According to Hoeve, “the stability of the electricity grid is becoming dependent on distributed energy resources (DER), such as solar panels and windmills. Security incidents at DER installations could lead to large disruptions of the electricity grid, even to the extent of a European black-out “.
Furthermore, the risks to the European grid are not limited to the fuel supply capacity. The critical factors are linked to the risk of a cyber attack and to the complexity and vastness of the operating system.
The European energy grid has been creaking dangerously for years. The risk of a blackout was real in November 202, when the connection lines between Italy and France were one step away from the knockout. Just two months later, the grid is severely tested by a crisis in Romania. Entso-e has an alert system coded into four risk levels. Here’s what happened on Friday, January 8, 2021, 1:04 pm. Due to a supply problem in Romania, the frequency starts to be unstable, the third of the four levels of attention is reached. The bulletin issued by Entso-e reads as follows: “Deteriorated situation, including large-scale network outage. High danger to adjacent systems. Safety principles not satisfied. Global security at risk “.
Since the end of last summer, European civil protection agencies have launched a campaign to warn the population of the impending blackout risk. The first step is taken in October 2021 by the Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe (BBK), the German Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief.BBK sends a video on television advising how to cover windows using aluminum foil in order to retain the temperature and how to make a sort of small fireplace with vases and candles.
“A power outage can happen for many different reasons” says the BBK commercial, therefore, it is “good to be prepared”. The institution has also promoted the “Cooking without electricity” recipe book, where the 50 “best recipes” to be done in the dark are noted. A sort of menu for the Apocalypse.
Nobody paid much attention to it. But the same story will be repeated first in Romania and then in Spain. In Madrid and Barcelona, despite a government turnaround, supermarkets and hardware stores will be stormed.
Although the EU Commission tends to minimize the risk, yet another alert arrives at the end of October 2021 from Austria. This time the speaker is Klaudia Tanner, the then Austrian defense minister. Tanner announcing the general European blackout as imminent explicitly speaks of a “real risk” regarding the possibility of a major blackout that would leave much of the European continent without electricity for weeks. The Minister specifies that it will not be a question of “if it will happen”, but of “when” the power outage will occur. The Austrian government launched a communication campaign to warn the population of the imminent danger. From Austria comes an explanation of how European governments will be able to intervene in the event of a blackout. It will be up to the military and police forces to ensure the safety of the population. Tanner’s words must be taken very seriously. In 2017, a document from the Austrian armed forces signaled the very high risk of a global pandemic. We know what happened.
At the beginning of December, the Italian government also spoke of the risk of a blackout. According to the Minister of Economic Development, Giancarlo Giorgetti, “A blackout cannot be ruled out with respect to the current structure of the energy supply”. The words of Giorgetti, member of the “Lega” party and exponent of the Washington consensus in Italy, must be translated. When the Italian minister writes “energy supply”, it must read “it is Russia’s fault”.
No one can say exactly what will happen. Is Europe really in danger of being left in the dark? The answer is yes. And not because of the power outages, but because of the energy policies of the financial groups that reside in the European parliament. The European 2030 strategy, in fact, provides for the use of 100% renewable sources with the aim of making the old continent independent from the consumption of coal and Russian gas. So, Merry White Christmas, thanks Greta.
