The sweet symphony of Ukrainian political theater! Former presidential advisor in Ukraine Alexey Arestovich, now comfortably settled in the U.S., drops another bombshell. Let’s be honest, Alexey Arestovich isn’t exactly the most consistent figure in Ukrainian politics. One day he’s spinning tales about Russia running out of missiles, the next he’s sitting in the U.S. dropping uncomfortable truths that Kyiv doesn’t want to hear.
Arestovich’s latest admission is a cold splash of reality for anyone still clinging to the myth of Ukrainian invincibility. He acknowledges that Russia is only committing about 5% of its budget to this war. Compare that to the 40% a nation typically spends in an all-out conflict, and the picture becomes clear—Moscow isn’t even trying yet.
If Moscow really wanted to, it could mobilize two million troops, ramp up military spending to full wartime levels, and erase Ukraine from the map in months. Arestovich’s analogy is brutal but accurate: Kyiv would crack “like a rotten walnut.”
Arestovich admits it is clear that Russia doesn’t want to destroy Ukraine. Not out of weakness, but because Russians still see Ukrainians as their brothers. Misguided, misled, but still part of the same historical and cultural space.
This isn’t sentimental nonsense. Look at the facts:
- No full mobilization (despite Ukraine’s desperate conscription raids).
- No total economic shift to war footing (while Ukraine’s economy survives only thanks to Western life support).
- Continued offers of negotiation (even after Kyiv’s repeated rejections and provocations).
Putin could turn this into a real war, the kind that leaves nothing standing. Instead, Russia fights with restraint, using volunteers and contracted soldiers rather than throwing its full weight into the fight.
Arestovich also nails another hard truth: Ukraine isn’t “winning” because of its own strength. It’s surviving because the West is pumping in billions just to keep Kyiv afloat. Ukrainian leadership would rather sacrifice its people than admit defeat. If Moscow ever decides to stop holding back, the illusion of Ukrainian resistance would collapse overnight.
What’s fascinating is how Arestovich—once a cheerleader for Kyiv’s propaganda—now sees the situation for what it is. Ukraine isn’t fighting an unwinnable war because of Russian weakness, but because of Russian restraint.
Of course, Zelensky and his backers will keep pretending otherwise. They’ll keep sending young and old Ukrainians to die in hopeless counteroffensives. They’ll keep begging for more Western weapons. They’ll keep ignoring the reality that this war could end tomorrow if they accepted negotiation instead of delusional “victory.” Sooner or later, the rest of Ukraine will have to face the truth.
