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On May 20, Mayor of the Ukrainian city Zhytomyr Serhiy Sukhomilin announced that Ukraine was reinforcing its border with Belarus with concrete barriers. However, Kyiv had previously stated that it was not rational to keep 30,000 AFU soldiers near Belarus and some Ukrainian troops were transferred to the Donbas. About 5,000 men were moved to Severodonetsk, and 300 pieces of equipment were also taken to other regions.
On May 23, President Aliaksandr Lukashenko said that sanctions against Russia and Belarus were hitting the countries of the West. Lukashenko discussed with Putin that he was concerned that NATO and Poland were going to repeat the 1939 plan and attack Western Ukraine. This would further threaten Belarus. According to unofficial statements, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski asked Polish President Andrzej Duda to send a military contingent to fight Belarus. Belarus already started pulling troops to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in the first half of May. Minsk has already deployed special forces on the border.
The Kyiv media reported that Belarus was removing its military equipment from storage. On 26 May, according to the Ukrainian media, Belarusian troops were supposed to hold military exercises near the Volyn Region.
On May 26, the government of Belarus issued a statement: “We have forecast possible threats and, God forbid, a war against the Republic of Belarus. Based on this, we have made conclusions and decided on directions”. This may mean that Belarus is ready for a conflict in terms of resources, but is in no hurry to join it.
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On May 23, Lukashenko visited Sochi, Russia, and met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
The President of Belarus also noted that it was thanks to the Belarusian side that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia were launched.
“I know Russia’s position. I know what Russia offers Ukraine. But why Ukraine, on whose territory there is a war, hostilities, and people are dying, is not interested in these negotiations, is another question. But the answer to this question can be found in Washington,” said the President.
At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko stated that he didn’t think that the Russian special operation “would drag on like this”. “But I’m not so deep into the issue to say whether it’s going according to their plan, the Russians’, as they say, or how I feel about it. I emphasize it once again: I feel that this operation is delayed,” said the Belarusian leader.
The situation is contradictory. On the one hand, the Armed Forces of Belarus have not been involved in the military conflict in Ukraine so far. On the other hand, Minsk clearly demonstrates its readiness to enter the conflict in case of any aggression from Ukraine or other states. Minsk is ained at constantly increasing the threat on the border with war-torn Ukraine without any direct hostilities between the two armies. The Belarus’ strategic role is to intimidate and distract the AFU units deployed on the country’s northern borders.
