A T-80 battle tank of Kyiv’s forces is destroyed in Kharkov Region
Attempts of Kyiv’s forces to break the Russian defense in the area of Krasny Liman have dramatically increased in the midst of Russia’s expected move to accept Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhie regions following voting there.
As of the afternoon of September 29, Russian units retreated from the eastern part of Kupyansk town in the Liman sector. At the same time, advance of Kyiv’s forces was reported in the settlement of Kovsharovka, which was at least partly captured by them.
Intense fighting was ongoing around the settlements of Katerinovka and Zelenaya Dolina. Pro-LPR sources reported that Kyiv’s troops lost over 12 pieces of military equipment in the clashes around the village of Novoe.
Around Soledar, LPR and Russian troops successfully repel attacks of Ukraine forces and captured several Ukrainian troops. Moreover, Kyiv’s fierce attacks on the town of Drobishevo northwest of Liman did not result in any success. Pro-LPR sources claim that the main direction from which Kyiv’s attacks come is the settlements of Novoselovka and Shandrigolovo.
In the current conditions, it seems that Russian forces were able to stabilize the frontline around Krasny Liman. However, the significant advantage of Ukrainian army in the manpower remains an key factor in this sector. The Ukrainian side directed by NATO military advisers will apparently continue its attempts to throw even more cannon fodder on Russian defenses in hope to make a few more tactical gains before the Russian military force in the region of Donbass sees the first practical results on the ongoing partial mobilization in Russia.
A Russian battle tank eliminates a T-64 of Kyiv’s forces in a counter-tank battle around Ugledar (southwest of Donetsk):
On top of this, Kyiv’s military forces attacked a civilian convoy that was moving towards Russian-controlled territory in Kharkov region, killing over 30 people including children.
Lugansk People’s Republic’s envoy to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, wrote on his Telegram channel that emergency services were unable to access the bodies immidiately, as shelling from Kyiv’s forces continues. The republic’s health ministry stated that seven other people were injured, including two children who lost their parents in the shelling.
Miroshnik stated the Ukrainian side knew exactly who they were shooting at, as they had used drones to track down the refugee vehicle convoy before “intentionally aiming at civilians.”
Speaking to the Russia 24 TV channel, the LPR envoy said that the number of civilians trying to get out of Kharkov Region significantly increased in recent days. According to him, most of the fleeing residents are trying to cross into Russia’s Belgorod region or the LPR, especially from the cities of Kupyansk and Balakleya.
A report of the Russian defense Ministry on the development of the operation in Ukraine on September 29:
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
High-precision attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at the positions of the units of foreign mercenaries from the ‘Foreign Legion’ deployed near Nikolayevka (Donetsk People’s Republic) has resulted in the elimination of up to 80 militants.
Fire attack launched at a provisional base of 2nd Battalion from 92nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed near Kupyansk (Kharkov region) has resulted in the elimination of over 70 Ukrainian servicemen and 14 units of military equipment.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 6 AFU command post, including the command posts of 53rd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Yelizavetovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and 14th Mechanised Brigade deployed near Dvurechnaya (Kharkov region), as well as 87 artillery units, 198 manpower and military equipment concentration areas.
1 rocket battery of U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems has been neutralised near Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk region) within the counter-battery warfare.
1 artillery battery of U.S.-manufactured M777 howitzers has been neutralised near Gulyaypole (Zaporozhye region).
1 platoon of Giatsint large-calibre guns has been destroyed near Yevgenovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Moreover, 9 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Kolomiytsevo (Dnepropetrovsk region), Kotlyaryovo, Bereznegovatoye and Shevchenkovo (Nikolayev region), Lezhino (Zaporozhye region), as well as near Kramatorsk and Malinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
1 radar of Ukrainian S-300 air defence system has been destroyed near Vladimirovka (Nikolayev region).
Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 MiG-29 of Ukrainian Air Force near Kurakhovo (Donetsk People’s Republic) and 1 Ukrainian Su-24 near Kaluga (Nikolayev region).
Air defence facilities have neutralised 8 unmanned aerial vehicles near Aleksandrovka (Nikolayev region), Bruskininskoye, Rayskoye, Sadok (Kherson region), Yasenpvka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Pavlovka and Petrovskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Moreover, 17 projectiles launched by U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and 1 U.S.-manufactured HARM anti-radar missile have been destroyed in air near Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region) and Kherson.
In total, 307 airplanes and 155 helicopters, 2,107 unmanned aerial vehicles, 377 air defence missile systems, 5,147 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 855 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,439 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,973 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Aleksandr Khodakovsky, one of the well-known commanders of self-defense forces of Donbass, shared in his Telegram a critical view on actions of Russian military commanders in the combat zone:
I am sure that everyone in the Ministry of Defense, just like me, wants a better result. Neither the [defense] minister nor Chief of the General Staff carry a fig sign in their pockets, and do not sleep at night, receiving cuffs every day and realizing that if not now, at the crossing, then later all questions will be asked. But if they sleep and see victory, why does it turn out like that, how does it turn out?
We surrendered those small positions that we recently took, having lost a lot of people… And here the question is, not “why did we surrender” – everything is clear to me – but “why did we take them”? How many times have I, a homegrown strategist, said that you should not get into a loop – you need to attack on a wide sector, having more than one echelon behind you, so that there is someone to develop the offensive when the advanced units run out of steam? I said that with a lack of forces and means, you need to keep an optimal distance from the enemy and work from defense until the accumulation of resources allows you to go on the offensive… But then why are we jumping, creating an unacceptable position for ourselves?
But here other laws already work, which have nothing to do with strategy and tactics. Here the general came to the grouping with the aim of strengthening [forces] and improving [situation], because before him it was neither strong nor good, and his personal task is to make a good impression. And what about the weakened resource? He does this and that, he employs non-manual relations, and his efforts are noticed, and the promotion seems to be looming, but all the same, a demobilization chord is needed. And now he gives a chord, thanks for the service, and decreases …. And his chord, due to its lack of viability, lives in agony for three days and subsides.
It is obvious that personal ambitions and self-esteem come into competition with the interests of the cause. At the top, a result is always needed, and when it is not there, they often try to push an imitation of it. Often, but not always. I know, for example, Teplinsky, Mordvichev, other generals with whom I had to communicate personally – Russia can be proud of them. It is important that such approach, as they demonstrate, become ubiquitous: only the real result, and when there is none, the truth about the causes. I would be very pleased to meet with the general, who in our country in 2014 bore the call sign Kazbek. His favorite saying is ‘there are no pockets in a coffin’, but the system did not like such persons. But now the time has come when it is precisely these people who need to be given a way – by this you will win.
Meanwhile, the partial mobilization continues in Russia. This important move was widely expected in the society and critical for the success of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine if the Russian leadership aims at achieving all the declared goals in this campaign. Nonetheless, it goes not without difficulties as in some cases officials responsible for the partial mobilizations demonstrate obvious signs of incompetence or even a direct sabotage. For example, in one of such cases, mobilized warriors were just moved to almost an empty field and had to wait for notable time without any vital supplies.
Officials responsible for such irresponsible decisions must not avoid punishment. The effectiveness of the Russian leadership in getting rid from conformists and saboteurs in the military system will be an important sign of the posture of the government in the time of the crisis.
Developments of the last days, first of all the partial mobilization launched in Russia together with referendums in liberated territories, demonstrate an apparent shift in the approach of the Russian military political leadership towards the conflict in Ukraine. Before these Moscow was employing a very limited task force and sent lots of clear signals about its readiness for constructive negotiations. Now, with the increase of the military force involved in the conflict, Moscow likely aims for a direct defeat of the Kyiv regime on the battlefield. This does not mean that the Russian diplomacy would reject negotiations. However, terms of these negotiations will be much worse for NATO puppets in Kyiv.
