Click to see full-size image. (Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense)
Azerbaijan is enlarging its air force like never before, signaling an ambition to play a larger military role in South Caucasus, Middle East and Central Asia.
The efforts, which began after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia in 2020, materialized in February of last year with a contract to purchase 16 JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan, which manufactures the warplane in partnership with China. The Azerbaijani Air Force (AAF) accepted the delivery of its first JF-17 later in September.
In a surprise announcement, Pakistan said last June that Azerbaijan had expanded its order for JF-17s from 16 jets to 40 as part of a $4.6 billion defense agreement.
Azerbaijani media reported earlier in May that Baku had increased the number of jets and the value of the deal from $1.6 billion to approximately $4.2 billion. Nevertheless, these reports were not immediately publicly confirmed by either Baku or Islamabad.
The AAF is receiving the latest version, the JF-17C Block III, which is equipped with the highly-capable KLJ-7A active electronically scanned array radar, which has a range of up to 200 kilometers, and upgraded avionics.
Azerbaijan’s JF-17s are said to be armed with a wide range of weapons, most notably the Chinese-made PL-15E beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile which proved its worth during the Pakistani-Indian conflict in May. The conflict, which saw the downing of multiple Indian fighter jets, including French-made Rafales, likely encouraged Baku to quickly expand the deal with Pakistan.
The JF-17 contract represents a serious upgrade to the AAF, both quantitatively and qualitatively. The air force is not apparently planning to phase out its Soviet-era warplanes. Some 14 MiG-29 fighter jets, upgraded by Ukraine, and 38 Su-25 close air support jets, upgraded by Turkey, will remain in service.
It is worth noting that the AAF is thought to be operating dozens of TB2 and Akıncı combat drones made by Turkey’s Bayraktar.
The air force also has more than two dozen Israeli-made medium-sized reconnaissance drones of the types Hermes 450, Hermes 900, IAI Heron and IAI Searcher.
The AAF could soon have ten times more warplanes than Armenia, which remains the main rival of Azerbaijan despite the settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan is clearly looking to project power through the AAF. The air force’s new capabilities could encourage Baku to start a new conflict with Yerevan, or even to pick a fight with another neighboring state.
In June, Azerbaijan was accused of facilitating the Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran asked Baku to investigate, and as a result tensions between the two countries have been mounting. There were also suspicions of Azerbaijan aiding Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia. However, unlike the case with Iran, there is still no evidence backing these accusations.
While Baku could receive massive support from the West to start some conflict with Russia, Baku will not likely take such a major risk.
The situation with Iran is, however, very different. Baku always had its differences with Tehran, from the issue of the Azerbaijani minority in the Islamic Republic, to disagreements over the Zangezur corridor. Now, after Iran’s air defenses were heavily degraded by the recent Israeli attack, Azerbaijan could see a chance to project its newly-founded aerial power.
A conflict is highly unlikely, but Baku could use the AAF to escalate against Iran in a calculated manner with help from Israel to secure some gains.
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