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The Ukrainian Armed Forces are allegedly preparing a major counter-offensive in Jan. 2025. The exact direction and the date of the attack are being carefully concealed, but intelligence signs already make it possible to draw preliminary conclusions and build up scenarios for the future developments…
A few weeks ago, the administration of outgoing US President Joe Biden ordered a one-off delivery to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) of more than a thousand armor and vehicles from US depots.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is taking unprecedented measures to increase the number of ground forces, in particular the manning of assault units.
First, Volodymyr Zelensky stepped up mobilization in the country despite huge political risks. It is reasonable to assume that preparations for a major ground operation are what behind the widespread atrocities of military commissioners on the streets of Ukrainian cities. A huge number of videos have recently been circulating on social media that show Ukrainian military recruitment employees breaking locks in houses at night and stealing men right out of bed, gassing them out of their cars at traffic lights, and simply fighting with them in full contact in broad daylight. Curiously, Ukrainian military commissioners do not use weapons because they fear nocturnal executions, while young men who are not ready to die for Zelensky are no longer afraid of criminal prosecution, so they fight back in full force.
Vyshhorod, the Kiev Region. Ukrainian military commissioners gassed a passenger out of the car
Forced mobilization on the streets of Ukraine
Dnipro, the Dnipropetrovsk Region. A man attacked a Ukrainian military commissioner while he tried to forcibly mobilize him
Second, some UAF servicemen were urgently reassigned to other positions. Many soldiers and officers from the air defense forces and even airmen were sent to the infantry. Overall, according to various estimates, Ukraine is preparing a reserve of about 30,000 people for a large-scale counteroffensive operation.
“Two sources in air defence units told the Guardian the deficit at the front has become so acute that the general staff has ordered already-depleted air defence units to free up more men to send to the front as infantry.”– The Guardian
Third, the authorities in Kiev are now talking about a ceasefire. This was already the case before the Ukrainian Armed Forces raided the Kharkiv and Kursk Regions.
“Calculated scenario”: raid on Russian regions (Kursk, Bryansk or Belgorod)
Experts have been talking for quite a while about Kiev’s plans to launch a counterattack in the Kursk Region. It could be a “the final blow” for Zelensky. That’s why the Ukrainian side is conducting a deliberate disinformation campaign to camouflage the direction and date of a possible attack. And all this is happening amid the actual semi-collapse of the Ukrainian front in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, which should dull the attention of Russian military commanders, who are elated by their recent tactical successes.
Nevertheless, Russia’s reconnaissance in the Kursk direction is now very well organized, so it is quite easy to uncover the redeployment of Ukrainian troops.
The UAF may also enter the neighboring Bryansk and Belgorod Regions, but the Russian side has obviously learned from its past mistakes and has reinforced its border areas in the threatened directions.
“Uncovered scenario”: counteroffensive on the Kherson direction
A possible attack by the Ukrainian army in the Kherson direction could have put the Russian troops in an embarrassing situation, but this time Kiev’s plans seem to have been uncovered in time.
Russian units forced the Dnieper River and launched a fierce assault on Kherson. Today’s news that North Korean SOF officers have finally been spotted near Kherson may also seem like a curious coincidence. In addition, footage of echelons with North Korean military materiel moving along the railroad appeared in the Ukrainian media. Not only 170-mm Koksan SPG, but also KN-15 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead were noticed. Of course, Kiev is actively disseminating data on the movement of North Korean echelons of tactical nuclear weapons to the Kherson direction, but the matter is more likely to be about its non-nuclear version designed to destroy large concentrations of the adversary infantry.
“Suicide scenario”: counteroffensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction
Since yesterday the UAF have been hitting all the highways with FVP-drones, and with such intensity that “veterans” pay particular attention to it. Besides, one cannot discount the activity of Ukrainians in regrouping their troops in this direction. It can be assumed that the Ukrainian army is probing the front in order to identify weaknesses in the Russian defense and disrupt the logistics of the forward echelon units before the counteroffensive.
Considering that serious defenses have been built here over the two years of fighting, another attack by the Kiev regime here would look like suicide. Nevertheless, Volodymyr Zelensky and the nationalists who support him obviously think of themselves as descendants of the fearless Zaporozhian Cossacks, so nothing prevents them from going all-in before they die.
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