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The Financial Times has recently named the five main lessons from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The article was based on the interviews with various Western military analysts and experts who attempted to draw the main conclusions for the world and the two countries involved in the hostilities.
One of the key conclusions drawn from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is that after many years of peace, the “big war has returned” to the international sphere, which means that the importance of the industrial potential of the warring countries has increased. The ability of weapons production and their reserves are one of the key to success of fighting.
At the same time, Western experts acknowledged that combat capability of Ukrainian forces is dependant from foreign supplies. This is the second conclusion from the war in Ukraine made by the experts. The key question is whether Western allies will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, in what quantity and of what quality.
The third lesson was mainly dedicated to Moscow. As quality is more important than quantity, WEstern exports claimed that Good logistics, a large number of troops and advanced military equipment are “worthless” without the good intelligence and leadership. At the same time, the experts claimed that Moscow drew the lesson. The situation on the front lines changed after General Sergei Surovikin was appointed commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. According to a military expert on Russia from the Rand Corporation think tank, Surovikin is “probably the most competent commander that Russia has put in place.” Surovikin managed to strengthen the front lines by the mobilized servicemen and organized “a successful withdrawal from the strategically important southern city of Kherson, where Russian troops were under threat of encirclement,” what reduced Ukraine’s chances of a successful winter counter offensive operation, the report reads.
On the other hand, the experts pointed out that the Ukrainian military is now facing difficult times. They suffer heavy losses, many of them are insufficiently trained, some of Ukrainian units are suffering from extreme fatigue and the lack of weapons and ammunition. However, Ukrainian servicemen are still more motivated than the Russians.
The fourth lesson drawn from the war is that the support of civil society is highly important for military success.
The fifth conclusion, which is “perhaps the most important lesson” of the conflict, is that the battle is fought not only on the battlefield and the course of the conflict depends not only of military equipment. According to the FT, Western countries should reflect on how the concept of peace and war has changed in general after the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.
